A key game in the NFC Sunday is Seattle (5-5) at Carolina (6-4), as both teams are pushing for a wild card with the Panthers currently leading all bubble teams with Seattle, Washington and Minnesota in close pursuit after Dallas beat Washington Thanksgiving Day to tie the Redskins on top of the NFC East. Both Carolina and Seattle have no shot to catch conference leading New Orleans (10-1) and LA Rams (10-1), so this becomes a pivotal game for potential wild card placing and tiebreakers. The Panthers are -3.5 home favorites against Seattle in NFL Week 12 betting.

Seattle leads the league in rushing with 154.3 yards per game, and have been especially efficient in their last three games. The Seahawks are the only team in the league with more run plays than passes. Following the first month of the season, the Seahawks have run more play-action and increased their yards per play production.

Carolina is 6th in the league rushing for 130.2 yards per game and their 5.0 yards per rush average is 3rd in the league. The Seahawks commit to running the ball more than any team in the league, rushing 32.3 times per game while the Panthers rush a league-average 26.0 times per game. Seattle’s offense is just league average at 5.5 yards per play, but they should have more success this week. The Seahawks run the ball to the right twice as many plays as to the left, and Carolina’s two edge rushers on that side are two of the worst against the ground game, which should give Seattle a definitive advantage in NFL Week 12 betting.

Cam Newton’s career passing numbers show a completion percentage below 60%. However this season, Newton is completing 68.4% of his passes with 20 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions. He’s also completed 73.6% of his passes in November, and the Panthers will move the ball and score if they continue to minimize penalties and protect the ball.

The Panthers are off back-to-back road losses after Riverboat Ron Rivera elected to go for the win last week at Detroit but failed on a 2-poing conversion in the closing minute. Carolina is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season and have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four home games. The Seahawks are 3-3 on the road, but have only beaten teams with a losing record. Still, under coach Pete Carrol, Seattle is 26-12 ATS as underdog in his coaching career with the Seahawks.

A key stat that goes under-the-radar is penalties, and Seattle is one of the most penalized teams in the league averaging 7.5 assessed penalties per game while Carolina is among the very least penalized at 5.6 per game. Adding to Seattle’s potential struggles as a road dog in NFL Week 12 betting is the early start traveling from West to East.

There are some positive profiles and indicators that suggest more scoring than the posted total of 47. Each of the last four meetings between these teams have exceeded the established total by +8.0 points per. Carolina’s last four home games have all sailed way over the total. With Seattle coming off a Thursday game, it should be highlighted that teams off a Thursday home win that went over the total have gone 32-8 over/under in their next contest.

NFL Week 12 Betting Free Pick – OVER 47


Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.