Trying to make sense of my NFL Week 14 free picks took some time!
There’s a lot going on this Sunday starting with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens as a -7.0 points favorite. The Chiefs have come back to earth since starting the season on fire against the spread. On Sunday, KC battles the Baltimore Ravens and their top ranked defense. Baltimore’s only a half a game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North. The Ravens have a lot to play for, but Kansas City does as well because even though they’ve been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL from Week 1, they’re only a single game ahead of the scorching L.A. Chargers in the AFC West.
Speaking of LAC, they offer 14 points to the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 9th! Is that too much…or too little? Check out analysis and picks for Kansas City versus Baltimore and Bengals at Chargers along with all the other great Sunday action in Week 14.
Sunday, Dec. 9
New York Giants -3.5 at Washington Redskins
Washington losing Colt McCoy, having to thrust Mark Sanchez in to the lineup and the public not wanting any part of it has throttled this line fom -1.0 to -3.5. The Giants have played better in recent weeks, but the underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 6 and NYG is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 after an ATS win. Taking the points.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Redskins +3.5
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers -5
So, the Packers dump coach Mike McCarthy and they’re suddenly a 5-point favorite over Atlanta? Doesn’t make much sense. Neither one has torn it up against the spread, but the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 between these two. Falcons are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 at Lambeau and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Packers overall. You guys know me – when it’s too tough to call, I go with the dog.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Falcons +5
New Orleans Saints -8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Everyone believes the Saints bounce back from their first loss SU since Week 1. Even though Tampa upset New Orleans in that Week 1 loss, it’s hard to see the Buccaneers beating the Saints twice in the same season. Can Tampa cover though? I wouldn’t get your hopes up because New Orleans is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 after accumulating less than 250 passing yards in their previous, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Saints -8
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
The Ravens have been solid since their bye, winning 3 in a row SU and going 2-1 ATS. Cracks have shown up in the Chiefs’ betting armor in their last 5 because even though the only game they lost SU was to the Rams, they’ve gone 1-2-1 ATS overall. Baltimore fields the best team in the NFL based on yards allowed and points allowed. Ravens can squeeze the Chiefs and keep this one close with a very strong defensive effort on the road.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Ravens +6.5
Carolina Panthers -2 at Cleveland Browns
The Panthers are reeling after losing their fourth straight SU and ATS in Week 13. Carolina can’t buy a win either on the moneyline or against the spread. Carolina’s also 1-5 ATS versus a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 on the road. Cleveland’s not a great covering team, but the Panthers’ issues appear to be much deeper than just reshuffling the coaching staff.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Browns +2
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans -4.5
The Texans are the hottest team in the NFL. They’ve won 9 straight and have gone a fantastic 5-1 ATS in their last 6. Pass defense isn’t a Houston strong suit, though. The Texans allow over 250 yards through the air. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck should find more holes in the Texans’ secondary than he did in the tough loss to Jacksonville in their last. The Colts cover even though they should lose SU.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Colts +4.5
New England Patriots -7.5 at Miami Dolphins
Patriots versus Dolphins hasn’t always been the blowout games that we might think. In fact, the home team in the matchup is 13-3 ATS in the last 16. Not only that, but New England is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 in Miami. The Fins are the play.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Dolphins +7.5
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills -3.5
Buffalo’s favored, which sort of makes sense because the last time these two battled, the Bills won 41-10. But, Jets’ starting quarterback Sam Daronold’s listed as probable. With Darnold under center, the Jets should move the ball more easily. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7. This is a terrific battle between two rookie quarterbacks, depending on which versions of each show up. Both Allen and Darnold have been erratic, and it’s hard to trust the Bills entirely. They are just 2-3 ATS when playing at home this season.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Jets +3.5
Denver Broncos -4 at San Francisco 49ers
This might be a simple case of a scorching team versus one imprisoned in an iceberg. Denver is 3-0 ATS and SU in their last 3 while the 49ers are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last 6. San Francisco appears ready to write off the final month of the regular season while Denver’s put themselves into position to grab a wildcard. The Broncos should roll to an easy win and cover. This is just an uphill grind for San Francisco at this point, who have battled too many key injuries across the board.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Broncos -4
Cincinnati Bengals at L.A. Chargers -14
Cincinnati’s without its top skill player, A.J. Green, and has gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS since their bye. The Chargers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 in Week 14. This is a ton of points, but the Bengals could find it hard to score more than 10 to 14 while the average they allow 30.9 per. The Chargers are the play.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: LAC -14
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 at Oakland Raiders
It’s a must win game for the Steelers, who are only a half a game ahead of rival Baltimore even though they had that impressive 6-game winning streak. Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 in December and 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 on the road versus a team with a losing home record. The Steelers often play down to their competition. They will again on Sunday.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Raiders +14
Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s not the same team in the second half of the season than they were in the first half. They aren’t an automatic “W” for their opposition anymore. The Cards marched into Lambeau and upset Green Bay on the moneyline in Week 13. They’ve also been the better team against the spread than the Detroit Lions, going 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 while Detroit’s gone 2-5 ATS in their last 7. Detroit is historically a tough bet in December anyways, going just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 matchups during the last month of the season. They ride in to the month with a 1-5 ATS record off their last 6 as well.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Cardinals +3
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys -3.5
Dallas is the hot team after winning their fourth straight ATS and SU, but the Eagles are on a 2-game win streak. Philly’s also 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in Dallas, and the road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14. Eagles have a shot of winning this SU. There’s great value backing Philadelphia on the moneyline, which is where I’m going.
NFL Week 14 Free Picks: Eagles +160