San Francisco is the only winless NFL team on the road this season (0-7), and after a physical grinding game against the Bears last week in a 14-9 defeat, it will be difficult to play their best on the division road this week. The Rams have something to play for with the No. 2 seed and first round bye in the NFC playoffs in site. As you know, the final week of the regular season is a minefield when it comes to sports betting which is why much of my focus is on the NFL Week 17 totals.
NFL WEEK 17 FOOTBALL BETTING
San Francisco 49ers (4-11) at Los Angeles Rams (12-3)
Sunday, December 30th – Memorial Coliseum – 4:25pm ET
Odds: Rams -10 (48.5)
In Week 7, the Rams buried the 49ers 39-10 as San Francisco added four turnovers to their league-leading total. Backup quarterback CJ Beathard has since been replaced by Nick Mullens, and the 49ers are 3-4 thanks in large part to the undrafted quarterback’s services. Traveling for the final week of a lost season against a division rival with something to play for, and having just played a very physical game is certainly not an ideal situation for the 49ers. Nor is playing without RB Matt Breida (ankle) and WR Dante Pettis (knee), who were both injured in the 2nd quarter of last week’s 14-9 loss to the Bears.
The Rams can secure the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first round bye with a victory, and expect full focus by the host. The balanced offense and rushing attack had no setback last week despite Pro Bowl running back Todd Gurley’s absence. Gurley remains questionable this week with a knee injury suffered two weeks ago against the Eagles, and he missed practice again on Thursday. But with CJ Anderson joining the team and rushing for 167 yards and a touchdown in his Rams debut last week, the Rams running game is still in good hands.
Instead of isolating a point spread winner, the NFL Week 17 totals in this game offer a better option to attack with some proven parameters and profiles for profit below. Note improved defensive play in December as both the 49ers and Rams games went under the total last week, and over their last three contests the defenses have played better with San Francisco allowing 328.0 yards per game and Los Angeles 312.7 yards per game.
2-16 Over/Under – In the last 3 years, NFL teams off a SU/ATS division road favorite win (Rams) in which they allowed 10 or less points have gone 2-16 over/under in their next game.
1-8 Over/Under – NFL teams off a road win of 21 or more points (Rams) in which they scored 31 or more points have gone 1-8 over/under in their next game.
2-12 Over/Under – In the final game of the season over the last 8 years, NFL teams with a win percentage of .750 or better (Rams) have gone 2-12 over/under with a posted total of 38 or more points.
0-6 Over/Under – In the last three years, NFL teams off a SU home loss in which they scored and allowed 14 or less points (49ers) are 0-6 over/under in their next game against a division opponent.
NFL Week 17 Totals Pick– Rams/49ers UNDER 48.5
Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.