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2020 NFL betting trends: Belichick nearly unbeatable as underdog

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

October 27th, 2020

Through seven weeks of the 2020 NFL season, we have a strong set of data to determine how the year is trending.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 8 and beyond.

Scoring

In Week 7, the scoring average moved back up to 50.6 points per game. However, the Under was still the moneymaker, as the Over went 6-7-1. After a dominant first few weeks for the Over, it only has a 54-49-2 record.

In Week 8, the average total is down to 49.5. The oddsmakers are doing their best to keep up with the scoring shifts in this crazy season. However, I still believe the Under is the correct play this week, and I highly suggest finding a nice Under teaser.

Which bet do you prefer to play?

"NFC Least" amount of points

The worst division in football, the NFC East, is coming off a week where it was able to get at least two wins, because it only had divisional games. However, there was still a lack of scoring in those games, as both hit the Under.

The NFC East is a combined 9-18-1 ATS and the Over is 13-15. However, in the past three weeks, the Over is only 4-8 in all games involving NFC East teams.

In points per game, the Cowboys are the best, at 19th in the league. The Eagles find themselves at 24th, while the Washington Football Team and Giants find themselves at 30th and 31st, respectively. In Week 8, you'll get a good Under bet, between the Cowboys and Eagles, and a good spread bet, as the Giants host the Buccaneers.

Road favorites off a bye

Seattle choked away a cover and a win Sunday night against the Cardinals. However, road favorites off a bye are still 63-30-2 ATS since 2003.

In Week 8, the Indianapolis Colts are road favorites in Detroit.

Another very strange trend for this game is that the Lions have lost seven consecutive Week 8 games against the spread.

Belichick as a dog is free money

The New England Patriots are clearly not the same team without Tom Brady. They also are inferior in talent to their Week 8 opponent, the Buffalo Bills. However, the Bills have not looked great the past three weeks and have some injury concerns.

Since 2004, Bill Belichick is 23-11-2 ATS as an underdog and 41-17 ATS off a loss. When you combine the two scenarios, he is 8-0 ATS and 7-1 straight-up. Even without Brady, it is hard to ignore that number from the great coach.

NFC North rivalry

In Week 8, the Vikings and Packers continue their division rivalry with yet another meeting in Green Bay.

There are quite a few intriguing trends to follow in this matchup. The Packers have covered four of the last five matchups and eight of the last 11 in Green Bay. The Vikings are also 1-5 ATS in the past six games played on grass. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last five divisional games.

The trends favor betting the Packers ATS but also betting the Under. The Under has hit in nine of the last 12 meetings between these teams, and the Packers had all four games in November go Under last year. The Under is also 9-2 in the last 11 divisional games for the Packers.


Who do you like in the NFL this week? Check out all the wagering options at BetAmerica!

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