2020 NFL betting trends: Kirk Cousins has been pathetic in primetime
We've reached Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season, and have a strong set of data to determine how the year is trending.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the National Football League and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 10 and beyond.
Everyone likes points
After a 9-5 record for the Over in Week 8, the Over managed to do even better in Week 9 at 9-4-1. This brings the season total to 72-58-3 for the Over.
A 7-point teaser for the Over would have hit 12 of the 14 games in Week 9. The average total in Week 9 ended up at 48.5 points as teams averaged 52.9 points per game. As long as you see the oddsmakers keep that average total around 49-50 points, continue to pound those Overs, especially in teasers.
Divisional home underdogs
The 2020 NFL season has been extremely consistent in some categories, and this is most certainly one of them. In divisional games where the home team is the underdog, the home team has covered the spread in 12 of 14 such games. Even the lowly Jets are 2-0 ATS under this scenario (their only two covers of the season).
In Week 10, the Giants host the Eagles, the Panthers host the Buccaneers, and the Bears host the Vikings. There are also two other games that are very tight spreads that could swing to fit this category (Titans hosting the Colts and Rams hosting the Seahawks).
Road underdogs off a loss
Last week, we talked about how betting on road teams that are underdogs and coming off a loss is a moneymaker in the 2020 season. Well that continued in Week 9 as those teams went 3-2 ATS and brought the season total to 27-15 ATS.
Who do you typically like to place your money on when betting the spread?
In Week 10, you get the Colts at the Titans (currently), Washington at the Lions, Jaguars at the Packers, Broncos at the Raiders, Chargers at the Dolphins, Seahawks at the Rams (currently), and 49ers at the Saints. That is seven matchups with a 64% win rate. It would be wise to play all seven to make a profit.
Matt Patricia is the new Jason Garrett
The Detroit Lions head coach has some big wins under his belt in his tenure. However, he also has some terrible losses and a major problem with consistency. Much like the former Dallas Cowboys head coach, Jason Garrett, who went 24-41-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Patricia has a small sample size in these scenarios, but he is 1-4 ATS when the Lions are a home favorite. We already talked about how the Washington Football Team is a good play because they are a road underdog coming off a loss, but this is an even better trend in their favor.
Kirk Cousins in primetime
Since 2009, the Minnesota Vikings are 3-11-1 ATS in primetime games of any kind. Kirk Cousins in his career has been horrendous in primetime games. He is 7-16 straight up in his 23 prime-time games. It gets even worst when you look at his road games in primetime. Cousins is 3-7-1 ATS in his 11 primetime games that have been on the road. The Vikings travel to Chicago for Monday Night Football in Week 10.
Another interesting trend for this game is the Vikings record against the spread in games where their opponent entered the contest with a winning record and with Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback. Minnesota is 6-11-1 ATS in such games and 3-8-1 ATS in such games on the road.