2020 NFL betting trends: When in doubt, bet the Over

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October 6th, 2020

We've now completed a quarter of the 2020 NFL season and now have a strong set of data to determine how this year is trending.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine which trends you should take advantage of as we head into Week 5 of the NFL season.

Offensive explosion

Each week in this column, we have talked about how the Overs are on fire and scoring is up from seasons past. Well the trend continued in Week 4 as the Over went 8-6-1, bringing the season total for Overs to 37-25-1. Teams averaged 52.5 points per game in Week 4 to reach a third consecutive week of an average over 50 points per game.

As it stands right now, the 11 games in Week 5 that have totals have an average total of 50.5 points. It still seems to be a solid moneymaker to continue to bet Overs. However, to be safe you can always just tease several of the Overs. In Week 4, a 7-point tease would have hit 11 of the 15 Overs. For the entire season, a 7-point tease would have hit 53 of the 63 Overs!

Monday Night Brees II

Drew Brees shines on Monday Night Football, but he had a struggle in Week 2 in Las Vegas. Although, regardless of the loss, Brees still managed to rack up 312 yards through the air. The Saints have been shaky on defense this year and have needed to put up big numbers to pull out the wins.

We talked about how successful Brees has been on Monday night before the Week 2 matchup. Well, his home record is even more impressive. He is 12-5 at home on Monday Night Football since joining the Saints in 2006. On top of that, October is his best month when it comes to win percentage as he is 48-20 overall. Brees is also 3-0 all-time against his former team (Chargers), whom he just happens to be facing this Monday night.

Thursday Night Brady

Brees may shine on Monday night, but Tom Brady shines on Thursday night. In his hall of fame career, Brady is 10-1 all-time on Thursday Night Football. That one loss was a season opener, so he's never lost on short rest. He is 8-2 ATS in this spot.

Brady also owns the Bears. He is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS against Chicago all-time.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road favorites and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall. Meanwhile, the Bears are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games. They are also 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss, and 0-6 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record.

Belichick does not lose two in a row

In a previous column, we discussed how Belichick is unreal following a loss. Since 2004, the Patriots are 41-15 ATS following a loss. They are also 115-59-6 ATS against teams that missed the playoffs the year before. Add on top of that, they are 105-64-4 against opponents outside of their division. Combine games against teams that missed the playoffs and non-divisional opponents and they are 65-25-1 ATS. The Denver Broncos meet all of these criteria. The Broncos have also failed to cover in their last five meetings that took place in New England.

Which is the best undefeated in the NFL?

Undefeated vs. winless

Last season, there were three undefeated teams and six winless teams entering Week 5 of the season. In Week 5, the three undefeated teams went 2-1 ATS and the six winless teams went 2-3 ATS. Moreover, one of the two wins was against another winless team.

This season, there are currently six undefeated teams and four winless teams. Of the six undefeated teams, there are three games that they are not facing each other. Meanwhile, all four winless teams are facing teams with wins. These trends tell me to bet on the Chiefs, Steelers, and Seahawks and to bet against the Falcons, Texans, Jets, and Giants.

Wager on Week 5 of the NFL season now at BetAmerica!