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Bills look to bounce back against Chiefs on Monday Night Football

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

October 16th, 2020

Monday night will see two games played in the NFL, the biggest one of which features the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a matchup of two 4-1 AFC teams.  

The Chiefs are currently favored by four and a half points, and the total for the game is 57 points, the highest in the league for Week 6.

Mon, October 19 2020, 9:00 PM

Buffalo Bills

Spread

+4.5

Moneyline

+185

Total

O 57

Kansas City Chiefs

Spread

-4.5

Moneyline

-225

Total

U 57

Chiefs looking to bounce back

Kansas City suffered its first loss of the season last week, as the Chiefs fell 40-32 to the Raiders at home. The defense was abysmal, allowing nearly 500 yards of offense as a 21-10 lead halfway through the second quarter was wiped out before halftime. The Raiders dominated the second half, scoring 16 points in the fourthquarter to cap a 30-3 point swing before the Chiefs got a late touchdown to make things interesting.

Patrick Mahomes and the offense seemed sluggish at times in the second half, looking quite mortal after a strong opening 20 minutes. The Chiefs’ QB completed just over half his attempts, and threw only two touchdowns. They also only gained 80 yards rushing on 20 carries, a big reason why they signed Le’Veon Bell on Thursday to a one-year deal. They also lost Sammy Watkins, who will miss Monday night’s game.

Bills are licking their wounds

Meanwhile, the Bills also come into the game off their first defeat of the season, as they were manhandled (literally; I’m looking at you, Josh Norman) by the Tennessee Titans 42-16. Josh Allen had by far his worst game of the season, throwing multiple interceptions for the first time in more than a year. Oddly enough, the Bills converted 13 of 17 third-down attempts, but only made two trips into the red zone, and turned it over three times.

The Titans offense only gained 334 yards, but they scored six touchdowns thanks to terrific field position and 10 penalties by the Bills. Tight end Jonnu Smith caught two touchdowns, a position the Bills have struggled to cover this season. That does not bode well for them, considering they will be facing the best tight end in the league in Travis Kelce.

Buffalo allowed QB Ryan Tannehill to complete 75% of his throws on the night, and while they were mostly short throws he still threw three red zone touchdowns. Tannehill also ran for 42 yards and a touchdown on four carries, including a 23-yard scamper. That type of defense must be improved if they want to slow down the Chiefs, who have weapons all over the field and a quarterback who can hurt them with his legs.

Chiefs vs. Bills injury report

The Chiefs will be without the services of Watkins, who injured his hamstring last weekend. They also won’t have starting guard Kelechi Osemele, who tore ligaments in his knee against the Raiders and will miss the rest of the season. LB Anthony Hitchens is battling a non-COVID-19 illness, and is questionable.

For the Bills, TE Dawson Knox missed practice and is questionable, while CB Tre’Davious White is questionable with a back problem. LB Matt Milano is dealing with a pec injury, but is expected to play.

Chiefs vs. Bills betting trends

The Chiefs have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games, and had won thirteen straight before losing last weekend. However, they have covered just five times in their last 17 games against the Bills. The total has gone Over just twice in their last six games.

The Bills have covered in three of their five games this season, and have failed to cover three of their last four games against the Chiefs. The Over has hit in each of their last five games, but the total has gone Under in four of their last six games at home.

Bills will be overmatched

Both of these passing offenses can put up big numbers, but Kansas City has done a much better job at stopping opposing passing attacks than the Bills. The Bills’ secondary is going to be heavily overmatched in this game, as they will struggle to slow down Mahomes and all of his weapons.

While the Bills should be able to put up some decent numbers, it won’t be enough to cover the spread. The total of 57 points is a lot, and while three of Buffalo’s five games have seen at least that many points, only once—last week—have the Chiefs been involved in a game with more than 54 points this year. Take the Chiefs laying the points, and look for the under in what should be an enjoyable game on Monday night.

Score prediction: Kansas City 34, Buffalo 20

Picks: Chiefs -4.5, Under

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