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Bills vs. Patriots: The best betting props for MNF

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

December 27th, 2020

Superstitions, conspiracy theories, myths, curses. Supernatural, spooky stuff. It all intrigues me and baffles me at the same time. Black cats, broken glass, the number 13, and now on Monday Night, the Buffalo Bills' apparent inability to beat the New England Patriots.

These two teams have met 39 times in the last 20 years and the Bills have picked up the win just five times. Even more recently since Sean McDermott took over at the Bills, they are 1-6 against New England.

Are they in need of a good luck charm? They might just have it with John Brown close to a return and a Patriots squad going backwards. New England is fresh off a battering courtesy of the Rams, followed by a 10-point defeat to the Dolphins.

Hopefully good fortune will be smiling on us though as we tackle the best prop bets for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots.

Tue, December 29 2020, 1:15 AM

New England Patriots

Moneyline

+245

Spread

+2

Total

O 47.5

Buffalo Bills

Moneyline

-315

Spread

-2

Total

U 47.5

Jakobi Meyers receptions

Meyers popped up with a huge game in Week 15 against the Dolphins as he hauled in seven passes for 111 yards, but don’t let that performance cloud your judgement on Monday night. The Miami game saw Meyers get double-digit targets from Newton for just the third time this season, and it was only the second time all year he had gone for over 60 yards.

Meyers may lead the Patriots in terms of receiving yards this season, but he has just an 18% target share in a run-heavy offense. Newton has thrown the ball more than 20 times just twice in the last six weeks, and hasn’t completed more than 17 passes since Week 11 against the Texans.

The Bills defense has been marginally better against the pass than the running game so it would be no surprise to see New England keep this on the ground. I’m happy to side with the Under here.

Pick: Under 4.5 receptions (-175)


Cole Beasley receiving yards

Beasley has been seeing far more work over the last few weeks with John Brown on IR, and in the last three weeks Beasley has totalled 31 targets from Josh Allen, hauling in 22 catches for a total of 283 yards.

Brown could well suit up on Monday night, but even if he does, I fancy Beasley to continue his good stretch. In Week 10 at Arizona, he hauled in 11 catches for 109 yards even with Brown active, so it’s not like Brown’s presence completely wipes Beasley out.

The Patriots held Beasley to just two catches for 24 yards in Week 8, but in 2019 Beasley went for 75 yards against them in Week 4, and 108 yards against them in Week 16. He’s on a hot streak in the slot and I’m backing that to continue.

Pick: Over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)


Josh Allen passing yards

Allen has been in red-hot form since the Bills came off their Week 11 bye, guiding Buffalo to four wins on the bounce, while averaging more than 25 completions a game and 282 yards. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns in six games and chucked more than 350 yards in three of those matches.

Allen is in the groove, but do the Patriots have his number? He managed just 154 yards against them in Week 8 (his second lowest tally of the year) and in four career games against them has never thrown for more than 217 yards.

The Patriots have nothing to play for, but they aren’t going to lie down for a divisional rival. The last four QBs to come up against New England have all thrown for 209 yards or less, and although Allen is in a different class to that quartet, this line may be too high.

Pick: Under 279.5 passing yards (-115)


Cam Newton passing touchdowns

Sometimes you have to keep it simple. Newton has just five passing touchdowns all season. Five. The Patriots have 31 TDs on the year, so just 16% of them have been thrown by Cam.

In the last two weeks New England has scored a combined 15 points, while in the same two weeks the Bills have held the Steelers and the Broncos to 19 points or less each.

Buffalo has given up 22 passing touchdowns on the year, but the thought of Cam Newtown throwing for two or more here isn’t really in the realm of possibility. Back the Under with plenty of confidence.

Pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-300)

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