Broncos vs. Jets: The best betting props for TNF
It’s a battle of winless, injury-riddled clubs as the Denver Broncos visit the New York Jets on Thursday to open Week 4 of the NFL season.
The Broncos are now on their third quarterback of the new season. You’re up Brett Rypien! The 24-year-old Boise State product entered last Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay and completed eight passes on nine attempts for 53 yards.
Meanwhile, the Jets' early season struggles have increased scrutiny of head coach Adam Gase, and this game could determine his immediate future with the club.
Jets coach Adam Gase is under more intense scrutiny this week and it's not just the external noise from media or fans. League sources say even w/ injuries, Jets' brass monitoring this week closely, today vs. Colts but perhaps more telling is TNF vs. Broncos. Interesting watch.— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) September 27, 2020
Here are the three best prop bets for Thursday’s game between the Broncos and Jets.
Fri, October 2 2020, 12:20 AM
New York Jets
Total first half points
This game features two of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL. The Jets are actually dead last in the league in points for, with 37, while the Broncos have scored only 45 points.
The Broncos were the victim of the injury bug at quarterback, losing Drew Lock to a shoulder injury in Week 2. There is promising news, however, as he could return in Week 5, according to reports.
But for now, the offense will feature Rypien under center. His resume in the NFL is still writing itself. He didn’t push the ball down field last week, which is understandable given his limited reps at game speed. In a short week, it’s unlikely we’re going to see the Broncos open up the playbook and take shots down field, especially early on.
Meanwhile, the Jets' offense has been horrific. Third-year quarterback Sam Darnold, taken third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, has thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three) through three weeks.
The Broncos have done an admirable job in keeping the opposition at bay. They held Tennessee to only 16 points in Week 1, Pittsburgh to 26 points in Week 2 and Tampa Bay to 28 points last Sunday.
With the Broncos' offense now starting its third-string quarterback, and the Jets so far incapable of scoring 20 or more points in a game, the Under for the total first half seems like a smart bet to take.
Melvin Gordon rushing yards
Melvin Gordon had a difficult outing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday. He had 26 yards rushing on eight carries, but there should be more space against the Jets.
Gordon had recorded 70-plus yards rushing in each of his first two games before going up against the Buccaneers.
The game plan may be to feed the rock to Gordon on a steady basis in order to help take the pressure off Rypien. Phillip Lindsay could return to the lineup this week, which will take some touches away from Gordon, but he will still get his opportunities.
The 49ers averaged 6.81 yards per carry on 27 attempts in Week 2, and the Colts averaged 4.10 yards per carry on 29 attempts last Sunday.
In both cases, the 49ers and Colts jumped into the lead, which is a game script that plays favorably to the run. It’s probably too much to expect a massive 20-plus carry, 100-yard rushing game from Gordon this week, but hitting the Over on 60.5 total rush yards is a manageable number given his production in the first two games of the season.
Braxton Berrios total receptions
Despite the struggles of the Jets offense, Braxton Berrios may be carving out a spot as a reliable target for the struggling Darnold.
In two games this season, Berrios has 10 catches on 12 targets for 123 yards and two touchdowns – all career highs for the unheralded third-year receiver out of Miami.
Veteran receiver Jamison Crowder could return to the Jets offense this week, and if he does, that’s something to factor into this bet. But Darnold, for all the difficulties in that offense, has been able to find Berrios in each of the last two weeks with decent success.
If this combo is comfortable together, building chemistry in a mostly miserable offense, then why not continue to try to get the most out of it? Have confidence in the Over 3.5 receptions, at least for this week.