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Chargers vs Saints: The best betting props for MNF

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October 12th, 2020

The New Orleans Saints are back in primetime for the third time this season, while the Los Angeles Chargers are making their primetime debut with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert at the helm.

The Saints enter this one off a tough road win in Detroit to get back to 2-2 on the season after a two game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Chargers have lost three consecutive games after a fortunate Week 1 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Here are the three best betting props for the Week 5 Monday Night Football game between the Chargers and Saints.

Tue, October 13 2020, 12:15 AM

New Orleans Saints

Spread

-6.5

Moneyline

-320

Total

O 50

Los Angeles Chargers

Spread

+6.5

Moneyline

+250

Total

U 50

Drew Brees passing yards

Another Monday Night Football game, another Drew Brees passing prop. The Chargers defense has been impressive this year, but this is Brees’ house. Prior to this season, Brees averaged 302.2 passing yards per game in 25 MNF games overall. In Week 2, he aired out for 312 passing yards.

At home on Monday night, Brees is on a whole another level. He has played 10 MNF games at home since 2010, and has averaged 349.9 passing yards in those contests. Only once in those 10 games did he fail to hit the number for this game, which is 265.5 passing yards. On top of that, in his three career games against his former team, he averages 305 passing yards per game.

The Chargers have been impressive on defense this season as they held the Kansas City Chiefs to only 23 points, and are 11th in the league in scoring defense. However, this doesn't necessarily mean they shut down opposing passing attacks. They are actually 25th in the league in passing yards allowed and give up 263 yards per game through the air. I absolutely love the Over here.

Pick: Over 265.5 passing yards (-115)

Who will win tonight's MNF clash between the Chargers and Saints?

Alvin Kamara receiving yards

This number currently sits at 52.5 receiving yards. This is quite high for a running back, but it is understandable considering the Saints are going to be without Michael Thomas yet again. So far this season, Kamara has 30 catches on 35 targets for 321 yards averaging 80.3 receiving yards per game. The number might be slightly inflated by a 13-catch 139-yard performance against the Packers in Week 3. However, he has hit over this number in two of the four games this season.

We talked about how poor the Chargers have been with their passing defense. However, that has not applied to their ability to limit yards to running backs in the passing game. The Chargers have faced the Bengals, Chiefs, Panthers, and Bucs so far and all four teams feature their running backs in their passing attack in a similar fashion to Kamara.

In those four games, they only allowed an average of 7.25 catches for 38.5 receiving yards. That equals 5.3 yards per catch, meaning Kamara will need to get 10 catches at that average to hit that number. He always has the capability to break a long one off a screen pass, but I will gladly take the risk on the Under.

Pick: Under 52.5 receiving yards (-115)

Justin Herbert passing touchdowns

The rookie QB has been quite impressive since taking over for Tyrod Taylor in Week 2. Herbert has a completion percentage of 72% to go along with 310.3 passing yards per game and five touchdowns. Last week, Herbert threw three touchdown passes against the Bucs.

The Saints defense has been excellent in terms of yards allowed, but terrible in scoring. It is sixth in the league in total yards, but 25th in scoring. It also has allowed 11 passing touchdowns through four games, which ranks 29th in the NFL. In their previous Monday Night game in Week 2, the Saints allowed three passing touchdowns to Derek Carr. I expect Herbert to manage at least two touchdowns through the air.

Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140)


Wager on Chargers vs. Saints now at BetAmerica!

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