Chiefs now Super Bowl favorites following Ravens collapse

Robert Criscola

January 13th, 2020

After a weekend of dramatic upsets and comebacks, the Kansas City Chiefs have emerged as the -105 favorite to win the Super Bowl. They’re currently listed as 7.5-point favorites to defeat the Titans in the AFC Championship Game, and if they do, they’ll have a date with either the 49ers or the Packers in Miami for Super Bowl LIV.

Odds to win the Super Bowl

TeamSuper Bowl LIV Odds
Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
Tennessee Titans

Kansas City pulled off an epic comeback Sunday

Sunday’s contest with the Texans could not have started worse for Kansas City, as Houston jumped out to a 24-0 lead. Dropped passes and special-teams miscues put Andy Reid’s squad in a huge hole early. But Patrick Mahomes, the reigning MVP winner, led his team back in a most impressive manner. He tossed four touchdown passes in the second quarter to give his Chiefs the lead going into the locker room at halftime. The Texans looked shell-shocked and never truly recovered in a 51-31 defeat.

Henry has been unstoppable for the Titans

Tennessee has already pulled off a pair of stunning upsets during the playoffs by ousting Patriots and Ravens on the road. Running back Derrick Henry has been on a tear, with 377 rushing yards in those two games. He also played a vital role in the Titans’ 35-32 upset victory over the Chiefs in Week 10, when he rushed for 188 yards.

Another contributing factor to that victory was Tennessee’s excellence on special teams. The Titans forced a missed field goal late and blocked a game-tying attempt as time expired. After they allowed the Texans to get ahead with a blocked punt and a muffed punt Sunday, the Chiefs have to be nervous about getting back on the field with a Titans team that is playing with house money.

Kansas City and San Francisco seem destined to clash

Assuming they do defeat the Titans, the Chiefs will likely still have to reckon with the Niners. San Francisco’s defense, far superior to Houston’s in just about every meaningful category, will not allow for a 24-point comeback. The 49ers were able to smother Kirk Cousins and the Vikings on Saturday, when they held Minnesota to 147 total yards. Kansas City’s 26th-ranked run defense would face the same problem with San Francisco’s three-headed monster in the backfield—Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida—that they will with Henry on Sunday. The value simply isn’t there on the Chiefs, but the Niners, at +150, are a relative bargain.

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