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Colts vs. Bills: The best betting props for Wild Card Weekend

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January 8th, 2021

Six thousand of the Bills Mafia will be allowed into Bills Stadium on Saturday for the first Wild Card game of the weekend, and even in limited numbers you can be sure of one hell of an atmosphere. Led by Josh Allen under center, the Bills have a team going from strength to strength, having lost just one of their last 10 games – and that was to the Murray Miracle in Arizona.

The Colts come into this game off the back of a wobbly finish to the season which saw them hammered by the Titans, squeak past the Texans (twice) and then blow a 24-7 lead deep in the third quarter against the Steelers. They rounded off their 11-5 season by hammering the Jaguars, but it feels like things are unravelling for the Colts.

This is the playoffs, however, and anything can happen, as we see time and time again each year. Here are the four best prop bets for Colts vs. Bills.

Sat, January 9 2021, 6:05 PM

Buffalo Bills

Moneyline

-159

Spread

-4.5

Total

O 42.5

Indianapolis Colts

Moneyline

+116

Spread

+4.5

Total

U 42.5

Josh Allen passing yards

It’s been a great season for Allen, as he ranks fourth in the NFL for number of completions (396), and fifth for total passing yards (4,544). Since the Bills had a bye in Week 11, Allen has guided them to six straight victories, throwing for 300 yards or more against the 49ers, Broncos, and Patriots.

Allen has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt this year and has thrown the ball at least 36 times in six of his last eight matches. The Bills love to sling it and when you have weapons like Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley, why not?

The Colts' run defense has been solid this year, but against the pass they are vulnerable. They’ve given up 242 yards per game passing (20th in the NFL), and allow 7.34 yards per attempt. Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow all had games of 300+ passing yards against the Colts this season, and Indianapolis gave up more than 326 yards per game on average over their last five matches.

Back Allen to find plenty of big plays against this Colts' secondary.   

Pick: Over 299.5 passing yards (-115)


Michael Pittman Jr. receiving yards

The rookie out of Southern California has had a solid start to his NFL career, that included a highlight reel day in Week 10 against the Titans when he caught seven catches for 101 yards. But that performance aside, Pittman has been solid, not spectacular.

Take away the Tennessee game, and he has averaged just 36.5 yards per contest.

Only seven teams ran fewer pass plays than the Colts this season, which is another red flag for Pittman, particularly when his target share for the Colts hovers around 11%. Since that breakout performance against the Titans, he has seen just 4.2 targets on average per game from Rivers.

The Bills are average against the pass, so there is opportunity there for the Colts should they take it. However, Pittman’s low target volume has swayed me towards the Under on this line.  

Pick: Under 42.5 receiving yards (-110)


Devin Singletary rushing yards

Buffalo is a pass-first team, so like Pittman for the Colts, opportunity for Devin Singletary is limited. He has managed more than 14 rushing attempts just twice this season, and has been splitting touches with Zack Moss.

On first look, this line of 29.5 looks low. Ignoring Week 17 against the Dolphins in which Singletary played a limited number of snaps, he has surpassed that figure in the five games since the Bills bye week.

But the Colts pass defense is a different animal. They’ve allowed just 90.5 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the league behind Tampa Bay. Aaron Jones (10 carries for 41 yards) and D’Ernest Johnson (8 carries for 32 yards) are the only players to get 10 carries or less and beat this line of 29.5 yards against the Colts this season.

A limited number of opportunities and a stingy defense is a bad combo for Singletary.

Pick: Under 29.5 rushing yards (-110)


Philip Rivers passing touchdowns

The final prop is one where the odds just look a little big and I feel there is value to be had.

Only two of the last six quarterbacks to face Bills had multiple passing TDs – those being Nick Mullins and Ben Roethlisberger – while this season Philip Rivers has failed to register multiple touchdowns in 56% of his games.

The Bills have allowed 23 passing TDs this year, and only eight teams in the league have allowed fewer. Throw in the fact that there are only six team with more interceptions than Buffalo this season and their pass defense might be stronger than it can sometimes look.

The Colts are projected to get around 22 points and Jonathan Taylor has seven rushing touchdowns in his last four games. Rivers will be trying to give it to the hot hand in the red zone, and that may mean a lack of passing touchdowns for the Colts.

Pick: Under 1.5 passing TDs (+130)

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