Daniel Jones 2020 passing props

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May 5th, 2020

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones struggled with inconsistency during his rookie season. In his second year, Eli Manning’s successor is expected to take a leap forward, and you can bet on whether he’ll find success with BetAmerica’s passing props.

Let’s examine the Over/Under for Jones’ regular-season passing yards and passing touchdowns and pick the best bet for each.

Daniel Jones' regular-season passing yards

Passing yardsOdds
Over 3,799.5
Under 3,799.5

In 2019, Jones made his NFL debut in the final minutes of a 35-17 loss at Dallas in Week 1. He completed 3-of-4 passes for 17 yards and fumbled once — something he would go on to do 17 more times, more than any other quarterback in 2020.

Through 13 games, he completed 61.9% of his passes for 3,027 yards (232.8 per game). If you extrapolate his yardage through 16 games, he would have accumulated 3,724.8 yards for the season, which would still hit Under 3,799.5.

Jones competed alongside a group of gifted receivers, but most of them missed time with injury or on suspension. Golden Tate sat out the first four games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing substances. Sterling Shepard was in and out of concussion protocol throughout the year, and tight end Evan Engram was placed on injured reserve with a foot injury in December.

Running back Saquon Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 and didn’t return until Week 7. In his rookie season, Barkley ran for 1,307 yards and hauled in 91 receptions for 721 yards. In 2019, he registered 44 fewer carries and caught 52 passes for 438 yards.  

Should Jones (who missed two games with an ankle injury in December) stay healthy, along with his offensive teammates, he should see a huge uptick in passing yardage. He has the weapons at his disposal and the ability to rack up yardage, as long as he takes better care of the ball.  

Pick: Over 3,779.5 yards

Daniel Jones' passing touchdowns

Passing touchdownsOdds
Over 25.5
Under 25.5

For all the headaches his fumbles and interceptions caused, Jones still tossed at least one touchdown pass in every game he started.

He had five games with at least two touchdown passes and three games with four or more. In a Dec. 22 overtime victory at Washington, he became the first NFL rookie to throw for more than 350 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions.

His 24 touchdown passes tied for 13th in the league with Tom Brady. To hit the Over in 2020, Jones would need to post the same total as Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan in 2019 — some fairly elite company.  

While you could follow the same rationale as above and forecast a higher touchdown total if his offense is healthy, that may not be the case when it comes to scoring.

If Barkley is at 100% for a full season, he will carry the ball more often near the goal line. He scored 11 times on the ground through 16 games in 2018 but only six times in his injury-shortened 2019 season.

Jones’ touchdown percentage (5.2) exceeded the league average (4.5), and it’s likely he’ll come back down to earth in the upcoming season.

Look for Barkley to take away some opportunities in the end zone, and bet the Under on Jones’ passing touchdowns.

Pick: Under 25.5 TDs

Find the full list of NFL passing props at BetAmerica