Falcons vs. Packers: The best betting props for MNF

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October 5th, 2020

It's time again for another double-header on Monday night, although this one was not by design. Cam Newton's positive COVID-19 test result has pushed the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs game to this evening. The "real" Monday Night Football game between the Falcons and Packers is our focus here.

The Falcons are shockingly 0-3 even though they have scored 90 points and held double-digit leads with less than eight minutes to go in each of their last two games. The Packers, meanwhile, are 3-0 and lead the league in scoring at 40.7 points per game.

Here are the three best betting props for the Week 4 Monday Night Football game between the Falcons and Packers.

Who will win the Week 4 MNF matchup between Atlanta and Green Bay?

Aaron Rodgers passing yards

Aaron Rodgers has been on a mission this season. The Packers drafted QB Jordan Love from Utah State in April. Then the NFL Top 100 players list came out and ranked Rodgers 16th in the league. This is the lowest he has ever been ranked in the list that dates back to 2011. The last two times Rodgers was ranked outside the Top 10 of this list (11th both times), he won NFL MVP honors.

Through three games, Rodgers is averaging 295.7 passing yards per game. Tonight's betting prop number is at 288.5 yards. However, he has only hit over this number in one of the three games this season and it was Week 1 against the Vikings' poor secondary. In his seven games against the Falcons, Rodgers averages 309 passing yards per game.

It's worth noting that the Falcons' secondary is just as bad as the Vikings. They are currently allowing 350.3 yards per game through the air and that includes a game against the Bears' mediocre passing attack. This is a high number, but you have to lean towards the Over as Rodgers looks to continue his MVP campaign.

Pick: Over 288.5 passing yards (-115)

Aaron Rodgers passing touchdowns

Everything I just mentioned about Rodgers and his success so far this season and in the past against the Falcons also applies here. He has nine passing touchdowns through those three games and the Falcons defense has allowed nine passing touchdowns through three games.

The number here is sitting at 2.5 passing touchdowns. In his seven regular season games all-time against the Falcons, Rodgers has gone over this number only three times. Although, in his most recent MVP season (2014), he threw three touchdown passes against the Falcons. He is also likely to get his favorite end zone target, Davante Adams, back for this game.

Pick: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+140)

Russell Gage receiving yards

As of right now, both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are game time decisions. That makes this pick extremely risky no matter which side you like. The number is 52.5 yards and it could easily change higher or lower based on the injury decisions. However, we are making this decision right now and I expect both Jones and Ridley to be active.

In Gage’s three-year career, he has only reached this number of receiving yards in four games. One of those four games came in Week 1 this season against the Seahawks when he put up 114 yards on nine catches. However, in Week 2 he only managed 46 yards and then dropped again to 26 yards last week.

Gage seems to be trending out of the offense and if Ridley and Jones both play, this could be a mortal lock. I absolutely love this Under and will just hope he does not break a long one.

Pick: Under 52.5 receiving yards (-130)