MNF betting tips: Patriots will rely heavily on the run against Jets
Okay, there is no hiding it. This AFC East clash is not exactly a battle of two Super Bowl contenders. With a combined two wins from 15 games we are getting to witness a Patriots team that is in freefall against a Jets team which is by far the worst in the league.
Yes, Monday Night Football pits the lowest scoring team in the NFL against the third lowest scoring team. What a thrill!
However, we are not here to bemoan the fixture Gods. We are here to turn chicken sh*t into chicken salad – and the easiest way to do that is to find some red-hot prop bets to start the week with a bang.
Tue, November 10 2020, 1:15 AM
New York Jets
New England Patriots
BOOM: Cam Newton (Over 51.5 rushing yards -110)
Newton's season has certainly not been impressive through the air – he’s thrown for just two passing touchdowns in six games and surpassed 162 yards just the once – however it’s his running game I’m more interested in against the Jets.
Newton has beaten this line three times in his six games and I suspect he is going to get plenty of chances to put up the yards on the ground in this matchup. The Patriots have been running the ball a league-high 55% of the time when they’re in a neutral game script, and now as they go in as 10-point favourites I expect that number to be higher again.
And if New England is running the ball – that means Cam is. He has totalled 28% of New England’s carries this year and that should lead to at least eight carries against the Jets. Josh Allen ran 14 times for 57 yards in Week 1 and then ran 11 times for 61 yards in Week 7.
I’m banking on Cam doing the same.
Will the New York Jets win a game in 2020?
BOOM: Jamison Crowder (Over 51.5 receiving yards -110)
All the signs are pointing to Crowder returning from his groin injury, and while having him back in the Jets’ line-up isn’t suddenly going to make them Super Bowl contenders, it does give us another BOOM opportunity.
In the four games Crowder has played this season he has had at least 10 targets in each of them. Some of those games were with Sam Darnold and some with Joe Flacco, but the fact the targets are high makes for positive reading. In fact, with Flacco under centre it’s probably even better for Crowder as Flacco seems more inclined to target his receivers deep down the field – hitting Crowder with a 52-yard bomb in Week 5 against the Cardinals.
Crowder has 100+ receiving yard games in three of his four starts this season and averaged more than 14 yards per reception in each of those games. This game may not be pretty, but New England give up an average of 217 yards per game through the air – and someone has to catch the ball for the Jets, right?!
BUST: Damiere Byrd (Under 3.5 receptions -130)
A poor offense and a wide receiver not seeing many targets is pretty much the exact recipe you need for a cocktail of doom. Sorry Damiere.
In the last three games since the Patriots came off their bye Byrd has only seen 10 targets from Newton – and those were in games when New England was in catch-up mode. Those targets are only going to decrease further if, as expected, the Patriots go ahead and lean increasingly more on the run game.
Byrd has had more than three receptions just once in his last five games and Newton has been targeting Jakobi Meyers far more in recent weeks. Meyers has 16 targets in the last two weeks compared to six for Byrd, and as I expect that trend to continue it’s a good bet to hit the Under.