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MNF: Chiefs vs. Bills odds, picks & predictions

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October 17th, 2020

The Kansas City Chiefs aim to bounce back from a surprise loss last week, when they play the Buffalo Bills in the first game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

Set for a 5 p.m. ET kickoff in Buffalo, the matchup will feature two 4-1 teams who suffered their first losses of the season last week.

Mon, October 19 2020, 9:00 PM

Buffalo Bills

Spread

+4.5

Moneyline

+180

Total

O 57

Kansas City Chiefs

Spread

-4.5

Moneyline

-225

Total

U 57

Raiders exploited Chiefs defensive weaknesses

At home against the Raiders, Kansas City got exposed on deep passes by Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr, and gave up 144 yards on the ground, in a 40-32 defeat.

Carr completed 22 of his 31 passes for 347 yards and three scores against the Chiefs, while rookie receiver Henry Ruggs III hauled in two catches for 118 yards and a touchdown.

As for Kansas City’s normally explosive offense, quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed just 22 of his 43 passes, for 340 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 21 yards and a score, and chucked up a crucial interception with less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter, when the Chiefs trailed, 33-24.  

Bills' success rides on play of Allen

If the Bills have any hope of beating Kansas City, they need a better performance from quarterback Josh Allen.

In Tuesday night’s matchup against Tennessee — which was rescheduled because of multiple COVID-19 cases on the Titans’ roster — Allen was intercepted twice, completed 63.4% of his passes, and averaged 6.4 yards per pass, his lowest number of the season.

Before Week 5, Allen — an early MVP candidate — averaged nearly 9 yards per attempt, owned a 71% completion percentage, and tossed just one interception to 12 touchdown passes.

Bills vs. Chiefs injury report

Against Tennessee, Allen lacked a key weapon, wide receiver John Brown, who was sidelined with a knee injury. Left guard Quinton Spain was also a late scratch Tuesday, and on defense, cornerback Tre’Davious White (back) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) sat out.

Brown and Spain returned to full practice Thursday, while Milano and White were limited. Tight end Dawson Knox did not participate because of a calf issue.

The Chiefs should be mostly healthy Monday. The only players who sat out Thursday’s practice were receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring), guard Kelechi Osemele (knees), and linebacker Anthony Hitchens (illness).

New signing Le’Veon Bell is also unavailable, after he struck a one-year deal with Kansas City on Thursday.

The former Steelers and Jets running back must go through five days of COVID-19 testing before he can join the Chiefs, so will not be cleared to play Monday.

Chiefs and Bills both need more run game production

Eventually Bell will complement rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the backfield and may get the bulk of goal-line touches.

On Sunday, Edwards-Helaire ran for just 40 yards on 10 carries and failed to score for the fourth straight game.

His best outing was a 138-yard rushing performance in Week 1 against Houston, the league’s second-worst run defense. Since then, his highest rushing total is 64 yards, which he achieved against Baltimore and New England.

The Bills rank 12th against the run and should present another challenge for Edwards-Helaire.

TeamPassing yardsRushing yardsPassing yards allowedRushing yards allowed
Kansas City Chiefs
308.0 (2nd)
119.4 (13th)
225.2 (6th)
157.6 (29th)
Buffalo Bills
287.8 (4th)
93.8 (28th)
263.2 (24th)
108.6 (12th)

As for Buffalo, its rushing attack averages just 93.8 yards per game. Luckily for the Bills, the Chiefs rank fourth to last against the run.

Kansas City vs. Buffalo betting trends

Kansas City is 8-1 against the spread against teams with a winning record, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.

The Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.

The Under is 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last five road games, while the Over is 4-0-1 in the Bills’ last five overall.

Both the Bills and Chiefs own top-five passing offenses, but Buffalo’s pass defense ranks in the bottom 10. With White potentially sidelined again, the Bills will likely surrender big yardage to Mahomes, which will force Allen to try to play catch-up on offense.  

Score prediction: Kansas City 34, Buffalo 24

Picks: Kansas City -4, Over 57


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