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MNF: Chiefs vs. Ravens odds, picks, & predictions

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September 25th, 2020

The two preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl will face off Monday night, when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Baltimore Ravens, in a rematch of arguably the best game of the 2019 NFL season.

The Ravens will host the reigning champions as a 3.5-point favorite. Baltimore outscored the Browns and Texans by a combined 71-22 in its first two games of the season.

Kansas City has not gotten off to as great of a start. The Chiefs needed a late comeback to win in overtime against the Chargers, after they rolled to a win over the Texans to open the year.

Tue, September 29 2020, 12:15 AM

Baltimore Ravens

Spread

-3.5

Moneyline

-190

Total

O 55

Kansas City Chiefs

Spread

+3.5

Moneyline

+155

Total

U 55

Lamar Jackson may be unstoppable

Through two games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is putting up video-game numbers again. He has rushed for 99 yards, at 5.1 yards per carry, and has thrown for nearly 500 yards and four touchdowns.

More impressively, he has completed 38 of his 49 pass attempts, and has yet to turn the ball over.

Against the Texans last week, Baltimore ran the ball 37 times for 230 yards, as Jackson and running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins wore down the defense.

The Ravens defense has been solid, as well. It contributed a fumble return for a touchdown last week and has allowed just 22 points through two games. While the unit has struggled a bit against the run, the secondary is loaded with talent and its pass rush should be able to cause Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes trouble.

Chiefs narrowly escaped last week

The Chargers, with a rookie quarterback at the helm, took the Chiefs to the limit. Los Angeles took a 20-17 lead with 2:27 left, but Mahomes led the team down the field, and Harrison Butker sent the game into overtime with a 30-yard field goal as time expired.

In overtime, the Chiefs won on a 58 yard kick by Butker. Even with the extra time, Mahomes has thrown for just more than 500 yards, a far cry from where he was last season.

Things won’t get any easier against the Ravens’ secondary, which has allowed only 420 yards on the season. Thankfully, the Chiefs rushing attack has improved greatly this year, with nearly 300 yards through two games.

Chiefs and Ravens statistics

TeamPassing YardsRushing YardsPassing Yards AllowedRushing Yards Allowed
Kansas City Chiefs
488 (25th)
291 (10th)
538 (24th)
301 (26th)
Baltimore Ravens
513 (19th)
341 (4th)
421 (6th)
189 (7th)

The Chiefs had issues stopping the run last season, and that has not changed in 2020. They have allowed 301 yards rushing on 66 carries. That wears down the defense and keeps Mahomes on the sideline. They must find a way to reverse this trend, or it will be very tough to win the game.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore injury report

The Ravens will get a boost from the return of wide receiver Chris Moore and defensive tackle Justin Madubuike. Calais Campbell is listed as probable and did not practice Thursday, but he is expected to be ready to go Monday. Cornerback Tavon Young is expected to go on the IR for the Ravens with a knee injury.

As for Kansas City, wide receiver Sammy Watkins is still in the concussion protocol, although ESPN has reported it is a neck injury, which means he is likely to play this week.

Corner Charvarius Ward returned to practice, after he missed last week’s game with a hand injury, but he and running back Darrel Williams are both questionable for the game and only went through light practice Thursday. Defensive end Frank Clark has returned from illness and should be ready to go.

Chiefs vs. Ravens betting trends

The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games, including last year’s playoffs. They are unbeaten in their last 10 games, and have won seven of their last eight on the road. Of the last 13 games the Chiefs have played in September, they have covered in 11.

The Ravens have covered in six of their last seven outings, and have won 14 of their last 15 games. They have won seven of their last eight home games. They have also won six of their last eight Monday-night games.

The total in Monday’s game is 55 points. In the Chiefs’ last six visits to Baltimore, the total has gone over in five of those contests. However, the total has gone under in all but one of the Ravens’ last five games overall.

Given the way the Ravens control the clock with their run game, I look for this to be a lower-scoring game. The Chiefs had only nine points at the end of the third quarter last weekend, and the Chargers employed a similar gameplan to what Baltimore will likely attempt.

Look for the Ravens to get revenge for last season, cover the number, and stay just under the total. 

Score prediction: Baltimore 30, Kansas City 24

Pick: Ravens -3.5

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