Monday Night Football betting tips: Patriots have no answer for Tyreek Hill

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October 5th, 2020

The expensive whiskey was flowing last night as Scott Hanson delivered good news after good news on the Red Zone. Yes, this column went four-for-four on Sunday as Joe Burrow made it a hat-trick of 300-yard games and Carson Wentz threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns against the 49ers.

With that good form in the book there’s no time to waste as we look ahead to the rescheduled game between the Chiefs and the Patriots as well as the 3-0 Packers against the 0-3 Falcons.

BOOM: Tyreek Hill (Over 65.5 receiving yards -110)

The Cheetah is coming off a fantastic primetime Monday night game where he racked up 77 yards with five catches from six targets and added a couple of rushes for 25 yards, as well as a touchdown against the Ravens. There is no stopping Hill when he’s in this kind of form.

New England held Hill to just 42 and 62 yards in their last couple of meetings, but this Patriots defense hasn’t been as efficient this year – offering up 67 yards to Tyler Lockett in Week 2 and 84 yards to Hunter Renfrow in Week 3.

Expect Hill to line up in the slot a fair bit and that means Jonathan Jones will be tasked with keeping pace with the Cheetah. Back Hill to do some more damage on Monday night.

BUST: Brian Hoyer (Under 230.5 passing yards -115)

I feel a little bad putting a back-up QB in as a BUST, but to be honest that guilty feeling will wash away quickly if it can bag us a winner!

Hoyer comes in with Cam Newton out of tonight’s match after testing positive for COVID-19, and I expect him to struggle against the Chiefs. Newton lit up the Seahawks through the air in Week 2, but managed just 155 passing yards in Week 1 at home to Miami and 162 passing yards in Week 3 against the Raiders.

Hoyer may have to throw a lot here, with the points line in at 49.5 and New England being the 10-point underdogs. However, the Patriots do not have the receiving corps to help Hoyer hit the high line of 230.5. The Chiefs boast the third best defense in the league against the pass, allowing just 202 yards per game this season, so back the under with confidence. 

BOOM: Aaron Jones (Over 3.5 receptions -125)

Aaron Jones has been a force to be reckoned with for the Packers again this year, racking up 378 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns thorough the opening three games of the season.

The Falcons might not know how to win a football game, but they can defend against the rush quite well. Alright, it’s average, but it’s far better than against the pass! Chris Carson for the Seahawks managed just 21 yards rushing in Week 1 against the Falcons but got 45 yards from six receptions.

In fact, through three weeks Ezekiel Elliott is the only running back to have racked up more than 45 yards rushing against the Falcons.

But Jones should still boom as a receiver. Only Davante Adams has got more targets for the Packers through the first three weeks and he is a game-time decision as he recovers from a hamstring injury. Jones can get another five or six targets here and beat the line.

BUST: Hayden Hurst (Under 39.5 receiving yards -115)

Hayden Hurst reeled in just one catch from three targets for just a single yard in Week 3 against the Bears, and things might not be looking much better for the tight end against the Packers.

Falcons coach Dan Quinn is quoted saying both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will play on Monday, as will Russell Gage, who has recovered from his concussion. That’s a lot more for Matt Ryan to aim at, and while the line here is a huge 57 points, Hurst will see some stiff competition for looks from his QB.

Add to that the Packers have kept opposing tight ends to fewer than four catches and under 50 yards per game this season and the signs suggest it may be a tough night for Hurst.

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