NFL betting trends: Brees and the Saints are ATS beasts on the road
As we near the end of the first quarter of this 2020 NFL season, we continue to get a clearer look at how this unprecedented campaign will play out. Let's break down the latest metrics and determine which trends you should take advantage of as we head into Week 4.
High scoring games are becoming commonplace
In last week’s column, we talked about how we're seeing higher scores for longer than in seasons past. In Week 1, teams averaged 47.4 points per game. In Week 2, teams averaged 53.3 points per game. Now in Week 3, teams averaged 52.2 points per game. The Over went 9-7 in Week 3 and is 29-19 overall.
Currently, the Week 4 slate is looking at an average total of 50 points. The oddsmakers are definitely adjusting to the scoring rampage, but it's not quite time to jump ship yet. In fact, if you teased every single game in Week 3 on a 7-point teaser, you would have hit all 16 games on the Over!
Denver loves Thursday night
This week, the Denver Broncos travel east to take on the New York Jets. Both teams are entering this one with 0-3 records, but the Broncos are 2-1 ATS. In their last 13 Thursday night games, Denver is 10-3 ATS.
The Kansas City Chiefs smoked them last season in their TNF encounter, but everyone loses to Patrick Mahomes in primetime. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost four of their last five TNF games and are 1-5 ATS in their last six October games.
When you think of Drew Brees and the Saints, you always think about how tough they are at home in the Superdome and how they struggle on the road. Not so fast my friend. The New Orleans Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. If you want more than just their recent history, the Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games.
#NFL Leaders: Road Passer Rating— Ryan Michael 🏈 (@theryanmichael) July 1, 2020
(2016-2019, Min. 750 Attempts)
1. #MattRyan = 103.4
2. #DrewBrees = 100.6
3. #RussellWilson = 98.9
5. #TomBrady = 96.5
6. #AaronRodgers = 95.9
7. #MatthewStafford = 95.7
Accepting “Matt Ryan is a Dome QB” fiction in comments below. 🍿⬇️ pic.twitter.com/otIqoweWEM
They have also covered four consecutive games against teams with losing records. The Detroit Lions on the other hand are ice cold. Before their upset victory over the Cardinals on Sunday, they had lost 14 of their last 15 games. They also went 4-11 ATS in those 15 games. Now they get an angry Drew Brees coming off consecutive losses.
West Coast teams traveling East
Historically, West Coast teams suffer when they travel to the East Coast for an early Sunday game. However, this is not necessarily true when we're discussing ATS records. Oddsmakers still factor in the fact that these teams are 95-138 straight up since 2003 in this scenario. Because of this, over time, the ATS record of West Coast teams in East Coast early games began to shift. Since 2013, these West Coast teams are 58-40-4 ATS.
In Week 4, you have Seattle at Miami, Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay, and Arizona at Carolina. In 2019, the Seahawks went 5-0 (3-1-1 ATS) in 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday games. The Cardinals went 2-3 (4-1 ATS) even though they only went 5-10-1 on the season, and the Chargers went 2-2 (2-1-1 ATS) even though they finished 5-11.
0-3 vs. 3-0
In 2019, seven teams were 3-0 and six teams were 0-3 before Week 4. Those 0-3 teams went 1-5 ATS in Week 4 and the one win was against another 0-3 team. Meanwhile, the 3-0 teams went 1-5 ATS with the one win coming against another 3-0 teams and one team having a Week 4 bye.
Either way, it tends to be smart to bet against both 0-3 and 3-0 teams unless they are facing each other. In Week 4, you can bet against the Bears against the Colts, Seahawks against the Dolphins, Giants against the Rams, Chiefs against the Patriots, Bills against the Raiders, and Falcons against the Packers.