NFL betting trends: Drew Brees owns Monday Night Football
This NFL season will be unlike any other season we have witnessed.
The COVID-19 pandemic limited the offseason and eliminated all preseason games. There have been 14 games so far in Week 1 and only two games had fans in the stands. Both combined for fewer than 40,000 fans in attendance.
With this uncertainty, bettors are looking for trends to give them the best chance each week. Let's break down five trends to look to for your Week 2 plays.
The Over is 9-5 so far, with an average of 49 points per game. This could be attributed to the lack of a preseason and a lag in defensive scheming. However, in Week 1 last year, the Over went 9-7, with an average of 48.5 points per game. In Week 2 of last season, the Over went 3-13, with an average of 38.6 points per game.
I expect to see a similar trend this season. I expect defenses to get back on track, just as they did last season. I would lean toward taking more Unders in Week 2.
You might assume home-field advantage will not mean much in 2020, with few or no fans in attendance. However, you have to consider all the other factors the pandemic has on traveling teams.
One of the most significant is that teams must arrive in the host city at least a day before the game. This means the visiting team has to quarantine in a hotel the night before the game.
Home teams are 9-5 against the spread so far in Week 1. Last season, the home teams went 5-10-1 ATS. The trend continued in Week 2, as home teams went 5-11 ATS. I expect a similar trend throughout the season and like home teams to continue their advantage against the spread in Week 2, especially the home underdogs.
New starting quarterbacks
In Week 1 last season, teams that had a new starting quarterback went 5-5-1 ATS. This season, teams that had a new starting quarterback went 2-4 ATS. That's not a massive difference, but the lack of preseason likely caused some issues with new quarterbacks.
In Week 2, you'll get the Bengals at the Browns, the Colts hosting the Vikings, the Chargers hosting the Chiefs, and the Patriots at the Seahawks. I would look to play against all four of these teams that feature new QBs (Bengals, Colts, Chargers, and Patriots) against the spread.
Monday Night Brees
In Drew Brees’ illustrious career, he has shined on Monday Night Football. He is 16-9, with an average of 302.2 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions per game. He also has a quarterback rating of 106, compared to his overall rating of 98.4.
The numbers are even more impressive in his past 13 MNF games. He has 4,501 passing yards, 43 passing touchdowns, and only six interceptions in those games. This week, Brees and the Saints travel to Las Vegas for Monday Night Football.
Bet against Brady
This is a statement you have rarely heard over the last 20 years, but in Tom Brady's last 10 games, he is 2-7-1 ATS.
Off a rough loss in New Orleans, Brady will have his first home game in Tampa this week, against the Panthers. The spread will likely be inflated, and you have a chance to take the away team at a bargain.