NFL betting trends: The time is now for the Cleveland Browns
We've reached Week 17, the finale of the 2020 NFL season, and we have a strong set of data to determine trends.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in the final week of the season.
Angry Aaron: The Finale
In a previous version of this column, we discussed how Aaron Rodgers is on a mission to prove the doubters wrong. He has an opportunity to cap the regular season with a victory over a divisional rival and clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in the NFC. Rodgers can add to his MVP case with another big game.
Rodgers is a winner against the spread in any situation (117-84-5 ATS in his career), but he is especially good in divisional games. He is 45-27 ATS against NFC North teams. The Packers are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight January games. The Bears are 11-19-1 ATS in the past two seasons and 1-4 ATS in their last five January games.
The time is now for Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns are in a position they haven't been in since the 2002 season. If they defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers, they are in the playoffs. After an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets, the Browns need to bounce back.
The good thing about the Browns loss last week is that clinched the AFC North for the Steelers, so Pittsburgh will likely bench key players this week, which has made Cleveland the favorite. In the history of the league, a team with a win percentage of 80% in Week 17 has only been an underdog in 12 games. The favorite went 7-4-1 in those games.
Look for the Browns to bounce back and get a big win against the Pittsburgh “B” team.
Which team will miss out on the playoffs in the AFC?
Road underdogs off a loss
This trend has been solid all season, so don't stop now.
Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs off a loss are 86-63-5 ATS.
In Week 17, the Falcons will travel to face the Buccaneers, the Jaguars will be in Indianapolis to face the Colts, and the Cardinals will hit the road to Los Angeles to take on Rams.
Also keep an eye on the Raiders-Broncos and Washington-Eagles spreads to see if they fit this trend by game time.
Divisional home underdogs
Week 17 only has divisional games, so you will have plenty of opportunities to cash on this trend that has been solid all year.
Home underdogs are 19-12 ATS in divisional games this season. In Week 17, you will get this opportunity with the Lions, Bengals, Bears, Texans, Panthers, and 49ers.
Also, keep an eye out on the final spreads for the Giants, Bills, Chiefs, Broncos, Rams, and Eagles.
Do not bet against Teddy
Teddy Bridgewater won another game as an underdog in Week 16.
Bridgewater is now 25-7 ATS in his career as an underdog, and he will get another opportunity to cover when the Panthers host the New Orleans Saints, who have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye in the NFC.
The Panthers are also 5-0 ATS in their last five January games and have covered four consecutive games against NFC teams. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five January games and 1-5 ATS in their last six meeting with Carolina.