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NFL betting trends: Tom Brady has been terrible in primetime

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November 17th, 2020

We've reached Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season, and have a strong set of data to determine how the year is trending.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the National Football League and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 11 and beyond.

Keep teasing

The Over went 6-8 in Week 10, which brings the season total to 78-66-3 for the Over. Week 10 saw an average point total of 45.7 points per game, which is down over seven points from last week.

However, even though the Under won the week, the teaser towards the Over still hit in 10 of the 14 games. Currently, the Week 11 totals are averaging 49.5 points. This is higher than usual, but the teasers towards the Over are still the moneymaker as the offenses continue to put up points around the league.

Kingsbury is a road warrior

Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury does not get the respect he deserves. He constantly gets his team to perform better than the oddsmakers would expect as he is 14-9-2 ATS since taking over the job last year.

He is even better when he is an underdog. Kingsbury is 12-4-2 ATS as an underdog as he will be in Seattle on Thursday night. He is also 8-2-2 ATS on the road. When you combine the two, Kingsbury is a remarkable 7-1-2 ATS as a road underdog. The Cardinals have two consecutive wins over the Seahawks under Kingsbury, and will look to prove their doubters wrong again.

Chiefs command the West

Since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, the Chiefs are 29-14-2 ATS. It is always a good idea to put your money behind the Chiefs. However, as Kansas City heads to Las Vegas on Sunday, they have a few more trends that make this one an especially good idea.

Andy Reid has been incredible on the road since taking over as the Chiefs head coach. He is 39-19-1 ATS in such games. In divisional games, he is 29-15-1 ATS as the Chiefs head coach. When you combine these two stats, the Chiefs are 17-5 ATS when they are on the road in the AFC West under Reid. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid own the AFC West and the Raiders are not going to put that in danger.

Tom Brady in primetime

I am sure you are probably thinking that Terrific Tom is free money in primetime. However, as the great Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend." So far this year in Tampa Bay, Brady and the Bucs are a putrid 0-3 ATS in primetime games. In 2019, Brady lost his final three primetime games of his career in New England against the spread.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are playing host to the Los Angeles Rams this Monday night. They are currently 3.5-point favorites in the big NFC matchup. Brady has struggled ATS in his last two years and it has been especially bad in the big games.

Give Miami some respect

No team in the NFL is better against the spread than the Miami Dolphins. They are now 7-2 ATS on the season and have covered five consecutive games. One major reason for this is they continue to get no respect from the oddsmakers. They have only been favored twice this season and by a combined 11.5 points. They have been, on average, a 3-point underdog in their nine games, even though they have a 6-3 SU record.

In Week 11, they travel to Denver and are currently a 3.5-point favorite. That may seem like they are gaining some respect from oddsmakers, but if any other 6-3 team that was 7-2 ATS was playing a team that was 3-6 overall, I guarantee they would be larger favorites than this.


Wager on all NFL Week 11 games now at BetAmerica.

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