NFL Wild Card Weekend betting trends

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January 5th, 2021

We have reached the playoffs of this 2020 NFL season, and not one game was canceled!

The league should be commended for its ability to complete a full regular season, and we have a strong data set to determine trends.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of for Wild Card Weekend.

Josh Allen is money

The Buffalo Bills may be playing better than any team in the NFL. A big reason for this is the emergence of quarterback Josh Allen. The Bills finished with the best against-the-spread record on the season, at 11-5. In his career, Josh Allen is 26-12-2 ATS.

The Bills have covered eight consecutive games, by an average of 14.8 points per game. They have also covered four consecutive games as a favorite and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.

The Bills' Wild Card opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games in Buffalo.

Seattle loves Wild Card Weekend

The Seattle Seahawks have not lost a home Wild Card game since the 2004 season, when they fell to the Rams. Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Wild Card games. The Seahawks are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against their 2020 Wild Card opponent, the Rams.

Another interesting trend is toward the Under in the Rams-Seahawks matchup.

The Under is 6-1 in the Rams' last seven games as a road underdog and 6-1 in the Seahawks last seven games as a favorite. The Under is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings between these two teams and 11-7-1 in divisional playoff games.

"NFC Beast"

The worst division in football, the NFC East, had to have one team host a playoff game, and it is the Washington Football Team. However, Washington should not be written off as an easy win for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games and 0-4 ATS in their last four Wild Card games. Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four Saturday games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.

The Under is 81-60-4 in outdoor postseason games, and this one will be played in the cold, January weather of Washington, D.C.

Which game are you most looking forward to on Wild Card Weekend?

The rematch

In last year's Divisional Round, the Tennessee Titans shocked the world when they took down NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Baltimore. This time around, the Ravens are the road team.

Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last six Wild Card games and 6-0 ATS in its last six playoff road games. The Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home playoff games.

The Over is 22-6-1 in Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s 29 starts with the Titans. It is even better in games played in Nashville, where the Over is 11-2-1.

The Bears are overmatched

Chicago is a nice surprise story, but the Bears are overmatched against New Orleans.

The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four January games and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record.

The Over is 29-12 in domed playoff games and 71-50-2 in all games started by quarterback Drew Brees in the Superdome.

Experience rules the playoffs

There is no game this weekend with a greater playoff experience disparity than the Steelers-Browns matchup.

Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home playoff games and 14-5-3 ATS in its last 22 January games.

The Browns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 8-26-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield is an abysmal 11-20-1 ATS since his rookie season.