NFL Divisional Round betting trends

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January 12th, 2021

We have reached the second weekend of the NFL playoffs and we have a strong data set to determine trends.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of for the Divisional Round.

Bet against Aaron Rodgers at your own risk

We have talked about “Angry Aaron” multiple times this season. Aaron Rodgers played this season with a chip on his shoulder and it led the Green Bay Packers to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Rodgers is 199-84-5 against the spread in his career and 61-35-4 ATS at Lambeau Field.

He is also 10-5-1 ATS on 12-15 days of rest. It is typically not wise to bet against Aaron Rodgers, but especially not in this spot. He has not lost a home playoff game since 2014, against San Francisco.

The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff home games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a favorite. The Rams have failed to cover in six consecutive meetings with the Packers, and the favorite has covered in nine of the last 10 matchups.

Don't put Lamar Jackson in a corner

The Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens will face off Saturday night, and they're possibly the two hottest teams in the NFL. Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills have earned the right to host this playoff game and take the role of favorite, but do not disrespect Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Jackson is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career. As good as Allen has been against the number, he is only 7-7 ATS as a home favorite. The Ravens have covered five consecutive games as an underdog, six consecutive as an underdog in the playoffs, and seven consecutive on the road in the playoffs. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.

Buffalo has been excellent against the spread this season, but the Bills are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 January games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Saturday games.

Which Divisional round game will be the best this weekend?

The Browns live as the true underdog

The Cleveland Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and stunned the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday to get their first playoff win since 1994.

The Browns will be the ultimate underdog this weekend against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Since 2004, underdogs have dominated in these spots. Against the No. 1 seed, the underdog is 22-11-1 ATS in the Divisional Round. The Browns are also 3-2 ATS this season as a road underdog.

The Chiefs have been susceptible to blow leads this season. The defending Super Bowl champs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite and have failed to cover four consecutive home games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.

Plenty of points to go around indoors

Playoff games indoors are, historically, loaded with points. The Over is 29-13 in all domed playoff games. In addition, Drew Brees’ starts in the Superdome have given the Over a 71-51-2 record since he joined the New Orleans Saints in 2006.

When these two head coaches meet up, the scoreboard typically lights up. In seven matchups between Sean Payton and Bruce Arians, the Over is 5-2.

The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Buccaneers and Saints in New Orleans. The Over is also 10-1 in the Buccaneers' last 11 games against NFC South opponents.