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NFL Week 11 Late Game Betting Highlighted by Saints vs Eagles

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Jay Ginsbach

November 18th, 2018

The New Orleans Saints go marching in to the NFL Week 11 late game betting slate as a heavy favorite against the defending world champions, with a chance to further cement their status as the conference preference. Also looking for validation are the Chargers, and whomever escapes the Oakland-Arizona matchup with a win. Here’s a betting and stats breakdown of the late afternoon games in Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 18.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers -7 (46.5)

AFC West division duel and the Broncos (3-6) enter off their bye week. Apparently head coach Vance Joseph still has a job, but he won’t be on the Broncos sidelines next season. In a similar coming out of the bye last year, the clueless coach had his team so well prepared that they lost at home as a 13.5 point favorite to the New York Giants, also known as the second-worst team in the league, . Denver’s rushing the ball at a league-best 5.2 yards per rush. So why are they only running it 24 times per game? Denver’s defense has declined terribly under another clueless coordinator, and I'll lay the points knowing QB Philip Rivers is having a very strong season with 2,159 passing yards and 21 TD’s, and he’ll pick apart the Broncos. Rivers will also have balance on offense with RB Melvin Gordon and the Chargers running game averaging 5.1 yards per rush. The LA Chargers (7-2) buried the Broncos on this field last year 21-0 when LA was not as good. Now the Broncos’ are even worse and the Chargers are the best team in the league that nobody is talking about. Chargers win their seventh straight game.

NFL Week 11 Late Game Betting Pick – LA Chargers +5.0

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Wildcats -5 (41)

Trying to figure out the better of two bad teams? The Raiders (1-8) have certainly slumped to the bottom of the league. The Cardinals (2-7) are really not much better, and rookie QB Josh Rosen is directing the worst offense in the league, averaging just 236.2 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play. The Raiders are more than 100 yards better on offense with QB Derek Carr with a league-average 5.6 yards per play. Yet who would want to bet on the Raiders after Oakland scored just 3 and 6 points in their last two games losing 34-3 and 20-6? Nobody, or very few.

But you won’t see me laying a rising line on the Cardinals, not even against the Raiders. In fact, this beauty came across my computer this week showing the contrary nature of the NFL and how perceptions influence and impact bettors betting patterns, especially against bad teams. Since 2002, NFL teams that scored less than 10 points in each of their last two games have gone 39-13 ATS in their next contest while scoring an average of 24 points per game. There are some tighter line parameters that make this situation pop even stronger when that team is a road underdog.

NFL Week 11 Late Game Betting Pick – Oakland Raiders +5.0

Philadelphia at New Orleans -8.5 (56)

The Super Bowl champs are on the ropes as the travel to New Orleans to faces the hottest team in the league. The Eagles (4-5) lost at home last week to the Cowboys 27-20. That victory cost many bettors as the Eagles took most the bets and the line rose to -8 at game time Sunday night. Those bettors won’t want to get burned by the Eagles again, and they’ll see a chance to bet on the NFC’s best team and the hottest team after the Saints (8-1) won their eighth straight game last week blowing out the Bengals in Cincinnati 51-14. That followed a high scoring, 45-35 win over the previously undefeated Rams the week before on this field and a 30-20 road win at Minnesota the previous week. New Orleans has scored an average of six touchdowns per game over its last three contests. So the Saints at the Superdome are going to get lots of love and bets, and they should score plenty of points again with QB Drew Brees and WR Michael Thomas able to attack an Eagles secondary that may be missing three defensive backs this week. Check the injury reports, including for star OT Lane Johnson, as he’ll be key for the Eagles if they want to keep pace.

NFL Week 11 Late Game Betting Pick – Saints/Eagles OVER 56.0  


Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.

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