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NFL Week 11: Packers vs. Colts odds, preview, and pick

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November 19th, 2020

The NFL Sunday late-afternoon slate features a battle of division leaders as the current class of the AFC South – the Indianapolis Colts (6-3) – host the NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Lucas Oil Stadium (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).

Which team will continue their reign atop its respective division, and which will fall back toward the pack? Here’s our wagering preview.

Sun, November 22 2020, 9:25 PM

Indianapolis Colts

Spread

-2.5

Moneyline

-130

Total

O 51

Green Bay Packers

Spread

+2.5

Moneyline

+110

Total

U 51

Both teams are struggling with consistency

Considering both clubs are guaranteed to leave this game with winning records, it’s been surprisingly hard to gauge how both the Packers and Colts will fare on a week-to-week basis.

Green Bay is 3-2 straight-up and 2-3 against the spread over its last five games. They were embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 38-10, in Week 6 before posting a double-digit victory against the Houston Texans. The Jekyll-and-Hyde act continued in Week 8 with a puzzling loss to Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings before a rebound victory over the depleted San Francisco 49ers. The Packers exit a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, albeit by just four points.

The Colts’ straight-up and spread records over their last five games are identical to the Packers’ records. It’s impossible to say with certainty whether the offense that piled 34 points on the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago will show up on Sunday, or if we'll see the version that scored just 10 points against the Baltimore Ravens one week earlier.

Strength will meet strength when Green Bay has the ball

It will be interesting to see how Aaron Rodgers and company – third in points per game this season (30.8) – will fare against the Indy’s fourth-ranked stoppers by points allowed per game (19.7).

Rodgers has 13 touchdowns over his last four games, but the Colts’ pass defense has allowed just 11 touchdowns through the air all season. Packers tailback Aaron Jones could have a hard time opening things up for his signal caller, as Indy is third in the NFL in rushing defense this year (91.8 yards allowed per game).

Packers and Colts statistics and rankings

TeamPassing YardsRushing YardsPassing Yards AllowedRushing Yards Allowed
Green Bay Packers
274.3 (6th)
121.4 (11th)
225.1 (13th)
110.8 (12th)
Indianapolis Colts
262.4 (10th)
105.8 (20th)
198.7 (2nd)
91.8 (3rd)

Rivers, Colts offense should flow nicely

Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has been in good form over his last four games, producing a 7-2 touchdown-interception ratio and recording a passer rating above 105 in three of those contests.

Indy’s 10th-ranked aerial attack should have no trouble moving the chains against a Green Bay defense that’s 20th in yards allowed per play in 2020 (5.8).

Will the Colts cover the spread against the Packers in Week 11?

Trends favor the home team

The Colts are 13-5 against the spread over their last 18 games against teams with winning records. They’ve also covered in five of their last seven games as the betting favorite.

Predicted score: Colts 27, Packers 21

NFL pick: Colts -2.5


Wager on Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season now at BetAmerica!

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