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NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Betting - Chicago Favored at -3.0

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D.S. Williamson

November 18th, 2018

The Vikings and Bears clash on NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football betting with a ton at stake. The Bears are in first place in the NFC North by only a half-game. Only Minnesota’s Week 2 tie against the Packers separates the Bears and Vikings. Minnesota won both matchups last season, beating the Bears 20-17 in Week 5, and 23-10 in Week 17, but because this is the first game this season between the two divisional rivals, the Vikings could be in for a shock. Chicago’s is surging after beating up on a few bad teams, and now have a chance to really prove that they can make a run at the playoffs. The Bears actually rank 5th in points per with 29.9 on average.

It's been four seasons since Chicago was actually favored against the Vikings. Will Da Bears extend their lead over the Norsemen? Or, will Minnesota wrestle the division lead away from Chicago?

NFL WEEK 11 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Sunday, November 18th – Soldier Field – 8:20pm ET Odds: Bears -3 (45.5)



Minnesota Must Make Their Move

A preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Minnesota Vikings haven’t yet shown they’re ready to contend. The Vikings have a great record, but they lost to Buffalo straight up as a massive -17 favorite in Week 3. Even worse is that they had two chances to prove their worth against the Rams and Saints, butchering both opportunities.

What’s frustrating for Vikings fans is that signing Kirk Cousins has actually panned out. Cousins completes over 71% of his passes while he’s only thrown 5 interceptions to 17 touchdowns. Whether Cousins could help was the biggest question heading into the season. It turns out that Cousins isn’t the problem, and a fully healthy Delvin Cook is going to rejuvenate the run game exponentially over the balance of the season. The other side of the ball’s where Minnesota’s had issues.

Stats wise, the Vikings look great. They rank in the Top 5 in total yards allowed per. But numbers never tell the whole story. Minnesota’s 0-2-1 versus the 3 teams they’ve played against elite offenses (Packers, Rams, Saints). The tie in Week 2 against Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay almost deflated Minnesota’s season since they followed up the tie with a loss in Week 3.

The Vikings have no choice but to make their move to the top of the division this Sunday, which means they must find a way to stop a good quarterback, Mitch Trubisky and his 101.6 quarterback rating.

Chicago Bears Get Acid Test

Many feel the Bears are overrated. It’s hard to argue against that after looking at whom they’ve beaten this season:  Seattle, Arizona, Tampa Bay, New York Jets, Buffalo and Detroit.

You can argue that Chicago's slate has been cream puff, but you can't debate the fact that the Bears are one of the more complete teams in the NFL. Coach Matt Nagy utilizes both the run and pass to move the football and score points. The Bears rank 13th in passing yards allowed and 2nd in rushing yards allowed. The team ranks 4th in points allowed.

Still, this is Chicago’s acid test. The Bears face a division rival who’s beaten them on a regular basis in recent seasons. Chicago must step it up and prove that they’re as good as their record indicates. Vanquishing a division foe who they're 3-7 SU against in the last decade should do the trick.

NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Betting Analysis and Pick

As we’d might expect, NFL handicappers are close to 50/50 on which team covers the spread. However, the trends provide reason to believe that Chicago’s the team to back.

The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 11, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Vikings are also an awful 3-12 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Chicago.

The Bears are only 2-5-1 ATS versus teams with a winning road record. These two are so evenly matched that even though I wish I could look past Chicago’s level of competition, I can’t. I’m backing Minnesota. Cook's return two weeks ago is a huge bright spot, and I'd rather back the known commodity instead of a Chicago team that is riding momentum thanks to a soft set of recent matchups.

Week 11 Sunday Night Football Betting Free Pick: Vikings +3

 
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