NFL Week 3 betting tips: Cowboys will feed Zeke early and often against Seahawks

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September 27th, 2020

Week 2 was wild. Simply wild. The NFL was devastated with injuries to top stars across the board, including Tyrod Taylor, who suffered a collapsed lung courtesy of his own team’s doctor. Somehow the Bears have now gone 2-0, the Chiefs almost lost to the Chargers, Washington won a game, and someone let Blake Bortles attempt 34 passes!

But luckily some things are more predictable – and I don’t mean the Atlanta Falcons forgetting how to play football…

I’ve gone through the Week 3 prop bets to hunt out the best values using what we know from the opening two weeks, and we start with Zeke tearing another shred off the Seahawks' pass defence.

BOOM: Ezekiel Elliott (Over 31.5 receiving yards -115)

The Seahawks' defence is riding into this game on the hype train after conceding less than 70 yards on the ground on average over two games. But while you have to tip your hat to them, you should also bear in mind that those two games were against Todd Gurley and Sony Michel? So, is it really all it’s cracked up to be?

Either way, I think Zeke is going to find some joy through the air for the Cowboys, as Seattle hasn’t just been susceptible through the air – they’ve been downright awful. Matt Ryan racked up 450 yards in Week 1 and Russell Wilson wasn’t far off 300 yards in Week 2.

Elliott has been targeted 11 times through two games by Dak Prescott, and in Week 2 hauled in six passes for 33 yards against Atlanta. The Falcons defence is almost as horrific as the Seahawks, and I’m high on Zeke to get another four or five catches and go over 32 yards.

BOOM: Darius Slayton (Over 3.5 receptions +100)

The 49ers medical team have been kept busy this week and the sick bay in San Francisco is busier than the queue for the bar at half-time. That is good news for Darius Slayton – particularly as the New York Giants have some injury problems of their own.

Saquon Barkley is out for the season after injuring his ACL, and Sterling Shepard is on the IR with turf toe. That pair swallowed up 25% of targets through the first two weeks, and now those targets are up for grabs.

Hopefully, a few of them will come the way of Slayton, who already is one of Daniel Jones’ go-to guys with nine catches off 15 targets. Slayton had a difficult time in Week 2 but given the injuries I’m expecting him to get seven or eight targets against a 49ers defence that is seriously banged up.

BUST: David Johnson (Under 45.5 rushing yards +120)

The Steelers' defence is legit. You don’t need to be an expert to know that. On average they’ve given up just 66.5 yards per game on the ground and represent the hardest matchup imaginable for Texans’ David Johnson.

Johnson’s Week 2 is a decent indication of how his afternoon might play out after a tough game against a Baltimore rush defence that is up there with the best in the league. Johnson had 11 attempts for just 34 yards, and that number of attempts might come down even further with Duke Johnson reportedly in with a chance of returning from an ankle injury to mix up the backfield.

Bottom line is the Steelers have held running backs to just 2.9 yards per carry through two weeks. That would mean Johnson would need 16 touches in this game to hit his prop line and I’m expecting him to be closer to half of that.

BUST: A.J. Green (Under 52.5 receiving yards -110)

Green missed the whole of 2019 with an ankle injury and was reported to be struggling with a hamstring problem prior to Week 1, so it is no surprise to see the 32-year-old looking a little rusty.

Well, maybe he’s more than a little rusty… Burrow loves looking for him and has targeted him 22 times through two weeks which is a huge number, but Green has turned that into just eight catches for 80 yards.

Now he goes up against the Eagles, and more specifically he’s likely to get shadowed by one of the best cornerbacks in the business, Darius Slay. Slay held the Rams’ Robert Woods to just two catches for 14 yards in Week 2, and A.J. Green would need to be at the top of his game to take on Slay. The Bengals man is certainly not at the top of his game and this prop line looks too high.