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NFL Week 4 betting tips: Burrow to break through against Jaguars

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October 3rd, 2020

The start to the new NFL season has been about as chaotic as the latest Presidential Debate, but when all the talking stops there are still seven teams heading into Week 4 with a perfect record.

The Chiefs gave Baltimore a beatdown on Monday as Lamar Jackson failed to get going, while the Falcons yet again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory – this time against the Bears. A Christian McCaffery-less Carolina Panthers managed to shock the Chargers, while the Packers beat the Saints in a thriller despite Alvin Kamara going for nearly 200 yards from scrimmage.

The fun doesn’t stop there, and we are all set to roll into Week 4.

BOOM: Joe Burrow (Over 274.5 passing yards -115)

Joe Burrow has been getting battered and bruised this season as the Bengals offensive line has offered little in the way of protection. He took 18 QB hits in Week 3 and was sacked eight times.

However, he is airing it out, and with running back Joe Mixen potentially out of Sunday’s game there is even more opportunity for Burrow to throw. Over the last two weeks Burrow has attempted more than 100 passes and has gone for more than 300 yards in back-to-back games.

The Jaguars defence is mediocre at best against the pass and the rookie QB can light them up in Cincinnati.

BUST: Myles Gaskin (Under 51.5 rushing yards -110)

Gaskin grabbed the bull by the horns to become Miami’s lead back as he got 22 rushing attempts in Week 3 against the Jags, turning them into 66 yards.

But this week the Dolphins go up against the Seahawks, and Seattle has the second-best defense against the rush in the league this year. They have by far the worst record against the pass, of course, so expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to be busy, and that's not good news for Gaskin.

Todd Gurley fought his way to 56 yards against Seattle in Week 1, but Ezekiel Elliott managed just 34 yards on 14 carries in Week 3. The Seahawks are six-point favourites going into this clash and the lack of rushing opportunities makes this line way too high.

BOOM: Will Fuller (Over 63.5 receiving yards -115)

Only the Seahawks and the Falcons have allowed more passing yards per game to opposing teams than the Minnesota Vikings, which presents a great opportunity for Will Fuller.

Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Kalif Raymond, Mo Alie-Cox, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have all racked up more than 60 receiving yards each against the Vikings through three weeks and Fuller can add his name to that list on Sunday.

Despite a hamstring issue, Fuller played 44 of the Texans’ 47 snaps on offense in Week 3, and hauled in four of his five targets for 54 yards against a tough Steelers defense. Similar volume here and Fuller will boom in a big way.

BUST: Carson Wentz (Over 0.5 interceptions -150 or under 1.5 passing TDs -175)

Whichever way you want to bet on it, Wentz has been super-bad through three weeks. And now the Eagles travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers who, despite being seriously banged up, have given up just 22 points through their last two games.

Wentz has nobody to aim at really with Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson ruled out, while Greg Ward was the only Eagles receiver on the 53-man roster to practice earlier this week. Wentz has already thrown two interceptions in each game this year and you can bank on at least another on Sunday courtesy of a poor offensive line and some dodgy decision-making.

If you’d prefer, you can also back Wentz on the Under in passing TDs. This has one of the lowest points lines of the weekend with the implied total for the Eagles being 18.5 points. Wentz has just one passing touchdown through his last two games and I can’t see him throwing a couple of scores here either.

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