NFL Week 5 betting tips: Steelers will feast on Wentz
Week 5 is here, and we are hurtling through the NFL season at a rapid pace. The Chiefs are looking unstoppable, Tom Brady keeps breaking records, we’ve seen a staggering amount of scoring, and there have been more comebacks than Rocky!
Let's keep rolling with 11 games slated for Sunday and four prop bets I'm very keen on.
BUST: Brandin Cooks (Under 42.5 receiving yards +110)
Jacksonville vs. Houston has one of the highest point lines of Week 5, which would normally lead me to betting on someone BOOMING, but I cannot get over the price of Brandin Cooks.
He simply has not seemed to connect with Deshaun Watson yet, and in Week 4 Cooks only had three targets. What’s worse is he didn’t catch any of them. And even worse again? He dropped one.
In three games this year he’s failed to break more than 23 yards, and his Week 2 performance against Baltimore is the only time in his last 10 games where he’s gone over 46 yards.
The Jags are beat up at cornerback, but I still have little confidence in Cooks, and the odds are too good to turn down.
BUST: Carson Wentz (Under 233.5 passing yards -115)
I’m always looking for the best in people and trying to see the glass as half full (particularly if that glass has Guinness in it). But I’m afraid I’m expecting Carson Wentz to BUST for the second week in a row.
Not that it’s personal. It's just that the line looks big yet again after he clicked for us in Week 4.
Wentz dipped under 234 passing yards in Week 3 against Cincinnati, and in Week 4 at the 49ers. Now he goes to Pittsburgh to face a well-rested Steelers defence that has given up just 290 yards per game total this season (ranked second in the NFL).
It’s not all Wentz’s fault. The Eagles offensive line is as tough as wet cardboard, and he doesn’t have a lot to aim at with both Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson both out with injuries. However, at the end of the day sympathy won’t win bets. Back the under.
BOOM: Michael Gallup (Over 44.5 receiving yards -120)
Finally, in this column we hit a BOOM and some positive thinking is going the way of Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup. So often the bridesmaid to stud Amari Cooper, this clash with the Giants could favour Gallup, and I’m happy to see a generous line of 44.5 yards.
Gallup has run more routes than any receiver in the NFL this year and he’s seen at least five targets per game from Dak Prescott. Not only that, but each target has been on average 17 yards, which ranks second in the league only to Marquise Brown.
This could be a huge game for Gallup as Cooper gets covered by James Bradberry, who is having a good season with the Giants. That leaves Gallup with undrafted Ryan Lewis in coverage, and that is a match-up he can thrive on.
BOOM: Todd Gurley (Over 67.5 rushing yards -115)
The Panthers have squandered plenty of rushing yards this season and Todd Gurley can add his name to an already jam-packed list with a big performance on Sunday. Josh Jacobs (93 yards), Leonard Fournette (103 yards), and Kyler Murray (78 yards) have all racked up big numbers against Carolina, while in Week 3 against the Chargers Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley split another 102 yards between them.
The Falcons are one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL and Gurley is getting an average of 16 rushing attempts a game. He’s averaging 3.9 yards an attempt while the Panthers are giving up an average of 5.1 yards an attempt.
Gurley has only gone over 61 yards once this season against the Cowboys, but he should be able to improve upon that number on Sunday.