NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football Betting (IND-NE -10.0)

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D.S. Williamson

October 3rd, 2018

Fresh off an awesome 38-7 win over the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football betting. Can the Pats make it two in a row, or will the Colts do enough to take home the victory against the spread? Check out an analysis of Colts at Patriots!

NFL WEEK 5 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots Thursday, Oct. 4 – Gillette Stadium – 8:20pm ET Odds: Patriots -10 (51.5)

Colts Offense vs Patriots Defense

After 3 weeks without doing much, the Colts’ offense kicked it into gear in Week 4. Indy scored 34 points in a 34-37 loss to the Houston Texans. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck carried the team on his weathered shoulders, throwing for 464 yards and 4 TD passes.

Luck faces a New England defense that he’ll try to carve up, but the Pats’ might not have any of it. New England has yielded 30+ points only once this season. The Patriots’ defense appears to have gelled after holding Miami to 7 points in Week 4.

Edge: Patriots

Patriots Offense vs Colts Defense

Indianapolis held Washington to just 9 points in Week 2, then pinned Philly to 20 points in Week 3, but what the heck happened in Week 4? The Houston Texans’ offensive line dominated the front five of the Colts with 119 rushing yards while quarterback Deshaun Watson threw for 375 yards and 2 TDs.

Houston might have exposed the Colts rush defense, which poses a problem for Indy against the Patriots. New England rookie running back Sony Michel showed why the Patriots drafted him in Round 1 by running all over the Dolphins.

Unless Michel takes a backward step in Thursday Night Football betting, the Colts have to sneak up a safety to offer more help against the rush. If that happens, Tom Brady lights up Foxboro with touchdown passes. This simply seems like a defense that is easier to figure out than their early season success suggests. And if anyone can find flaws in an opponent's defense, it's Tom Brady.

Edge: Patriots   

Colts at Patriots Betting Analysis and ATS Prediction

Public money flooded onto the Patriots almost immediately after Vegas made the Pats a -7.5 favorite. So much money’s landed on New England that the line’s gone from Patriots -7.5 to Patriots -10.

Given the steep price, and the uneven performance New England's had against the spread, bettors have reversed course and are now backing the Colts. The line shouldn’t move more than a half a point from now until kickoff on Thursday, meaning that New England is going to face a fairly large mark. It’s hard to back New England as a double-digit favorite until you realize that the Colts are 1-3 ATS this season.

New England’s only 2-2 ATS, but the Patriots head into NFL Thursday Night Football off their best performance of the season while the Colts head into Thursday Night Football off a bad defensive performance. Patriots should cover even if it's a tough (and large) pill to swallow.

Week 5 Thursday Night Football Betting Free Pick: Patriots -10