NFL Week 9 betting props: James Conner will feast against the Cowboys

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November 7th, 2020

There’s no doubt about it, it has been a crazy week in the U.S. The last seven days has seen more twists than a Tarantino classic, so it is nice to get back to some form of normality with a set of NFL games to look forward to in Week 9.

The Seahawks take on the Bills in a match which could turn into a spectacular shootout between Josh Allen and Russell Wilson, while Carolina’s star running back Christian McCaffrey is set to return in a game where the wind might be the only thing stopping Patrick Mahomes! The unbeaten Steelers take on Dallas with the Cowboys still struggling to decide who their starting quarterback is. If that isn’t a sign things are going badly, I’m not sure what is.

Without further ado, these are the four hottest prop bets for Week 9.

BOOM: Stefon Diggs (Over 70.5 receiving yards -115)

When we are looking for a red-hot prop bet volume is key, and Stefon Diggs is wearing the crown. The Buffalo Bills’ star wide receiver has averaged just under 10 targets a game through eight weeks this season and is Josh Allen’s go-to guy.

Diggs has racked up 85 yards or more in five of eight games this season and now takes aim at Seattle. The Seahawks have the worst pass defence in the league, giving up an average of 358.7 passing yards per game. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne went for over 80 yards each for the 49ers against Seattle in Week 7, and DeAndre Hopkins caught 10 passes for 103 yards against them in Week 6.

Even before the Seattle bye week, Adam Thielen, DeVante Parker, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Julian Edelman, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage all went for over 80 yards against them.

Diggs will be the next name on the list next Sunday.

BUST: Corey Davis (Under 61.5 receiving yards -120)

If volume is indeed king, it seems somewhat hypocritical to now pick Corey Davis to BUST considering the Titans wide receiver has had 10 targets in back-to-back games. And he’s coming off a red-hot game, scorching the Bengals as he hauled in eight catches for 128 yards and a touchdown.

But now Davis goes toe-to-toe with cornerback Kyle Fuller of the Bears.

Chicago has one of the better pass defences in the league and has allowed a completion rate of less than 60% to receivers this season. Fuller himself has allowed just 5.08 yards per target to the man he’s matched up with.

Davis has the ability to make some huge plays for Ryan Tannehill, but expect Fuller to keep him in check this weekend.

BUST: Travis Kelce (Under 69.5 receiving yards -110)

It’s always a risk backing a Chiefs pass-catcher to BUST, especially when Patrick Mahomes is coming off the back of a 416-yard, five touchdown performance. Kelce himself racked up 109 yards against the Jets and if you skip the game in the snow in Week 7, Kelce now has six games in a row of 65 yards or more.

Given no other Kansas City receiver has as many targets, receptions, or yards as Kelce I’m going out on a limb siding with the under, but against the Panthers it’s worth the bet.

Carolina have averaged the lowest number of yards per reception to tight ends in the league this season, keeping Darren Waller, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Hayden Hurts (twice!) all under 54 yards.

They will once again aim to slow down the Chiefs’ awesome passing game, and while the projected points total in this game is high, I suspect it may be a bigger game for Clyde Edwards-Helaire than Kelce, particularly as the forecast suggests a strong wind.

BOOM: James Conner (Over 79.5 rushing yards -115)

Conner has surpassed 80 rushing yards in four of his last six games and now gets to feast on the Cowboys. The Steelers lead back already has 100+ yard games against the Browns, Texans, and Broncos this season, but this opportunity against Dallas gives him an opportunity for his biggest total of the season.

The Cowboys are allowing 4.97 yards per carry, which is the third highest in the NFL and have faced a running play on 50% of plays against them (which ranks second in the league). That points to plenty of work on the ground for Conner, particularly as it’s expected the Steelers will go up big early.

Conner has been averaging 4.5 yards per attempt this season and could be looking at 18+ touches in Dallas. Given the Cowboys’ have the worst rush defence in the league back Conner to feast.

Wager on Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season at BetAmerica