Packers vs 49ers: The best betting props for TNF
The injury-ravaged Green Bay Packers head to San Francisco to face the beaten-up 49ers on Thursday Night Football, in a Band-Aid-wrapped rematch of the 2020 NFC Championship Game.
The Packers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Minnesota Vikings last weekend, while the 49ers got throttled in Seattle by the Seahawks. That loss was not just costly in the standings, as San Francisco dropped to 4-4, but also to the roster, as the 49ers lost tight end George Kittle and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to injury.
While both clubs struggle to put together a healthy lineup heading into a pivotal NFC matchup, there is value to be found in tonight’s player props. Here are our three best TNF picks for Packers vs. 49ers.
Fri, November 6 2020, 1:20 AM
San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers passing yards
Aaron Rodgers should have plenty of extra motivation tonight as he returns to the scene of last year’s disappointing loss in the NFC Championship Game.
The Packers have a plethora of injuries, particularly at running back – Aaron Jones is dealing with a calf injury and is questionable for tonight’s game – and the Packers may just try to demoralize the 49ers early by leaning heavily on the arm of Rodgers.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean it will translate to lofty passing yard totals.
Rodgers is having a strong season, with 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. However, he’s averaging 278 pass yards per game, and the 49ers don’t give up many passing yards. The Niners have given up 209 passing yards per game this season. Their defense averages 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
Rodgers can still have a productive and efficient night against San Francisco. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson tossed four touchdown passes against San Francisco last weekend, but threw for only 261 yards.
Rodgers won’t need to throw for 350 yards to have a big night. And it may be a struggle to hit the Over 279.5 pass yards.
The run game was the catalyst for the 49ers – at least on the offensive side of the ball – last year, helping them to a Super Bowl appearance.
Well, their depth at the position is being tested now.
The 49ers backfield is now led by rookie JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon. The latter signed a four-year $49 million contract with San Francisco in 2018, but injuries have kept him out of the lineup for the vast majority of his time there. And even with injuries at the position, McKinnon’s touches have dropped significantly in the last three weeks.
There should be an opportunity here for Hasty to take the bulk of the carries and get into the end zone once again, after he scored a touchdown last weekend against Seattle.
The Packers give up 4.7 yards per carry and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns.
With all of their injuries on offense, the 49ers' game plan might be to lean heavily on the run, in order to operate effectively and keep Rodgers off the field as much as they can. That should bode well for Hasty on Thursday.
Robert Tonyan total receptions
The emergence of tight end Robert Tonyan has given Aaron Rodgers another target – and a massive one at that – in the Packers offense.
Tonyan, 26, has 23 receptions and 309 receiving yards this season, which counts as a breakout campaign after he was rarely utilized in each of the previous two years in Green Bay. And with injuries at running back, the passing game might be the central focus of the Packers offense tonight.
That’s good news for Tonyan, who has been a steady target for Rodgers. Last week against Minnesota, he caught five catches on a season-high seven targets.
Davante Adams is obviously the star of the Packers passing game, but Tonyan has emerged as a big, reliable complimentary target, and he should have an active role Thursday against the 49ers. Feel confident in taking the Over 3.5 receptions against San Francisco.