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Ravens vs. Patriots: The best betting props for SNF

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November 14th, 2020

We knew that the New England Patriots were bad, but on Monday night they were almost "lose to the Jets bad," which is a whole new level. Now they come up against the 6-2 Baltimore Ravens, one of the strongest teams in the AFC.

The Ravens have won all four of their road games this season including tough battles at Philadelphia and Indianapolis, so a trip to Gillette Stadium isn’t going to scare Lamar Jackson & Co., particularly as they boast the strongest defense in the league.

Baltimore is eyeing a playoff spot, while New England is eyeing the 2021 NFL Draft. The teams couldn’t be in more different positions, but here it is business as usual as we eye up the four best betting props for their SNF clash.

Mon, November 16 2020, 1:20 AM

New England Patriots

Spread

+7.5

Moneyline

+260

Total

O 43.5

Baltimore Ravens

Spread

-7.5

Moneyline

-330

Total

U 43.5

Cam Newton passing yards

Newton has only thrown for more than 200 yards twice in seven games this season and now he goes up against Baltimore, which has one of the strongest defenses in the league. On that basis alone the Under looks like the play, and it gets even more persuading once you dig into the stats.

The Ravens have allowed just 6.39 yards per attempt this year, which is second only to the Rams. In the last four weeks against the Ravens, both Joe Burrow and Ben Roethlisberger fell Under this projected line, and although Carson Wentz (213 yards) and Philip Rivers (227) were able to beat it, they both had 40 or more attempts each.

The Patriots allow less than 60 plays a game and they run more than half of the time, which puts Newton down at between 25 and 30 attempts in this contest. Based on his average, that’s around 17 completions, and that’s not enough to beat this line.

Pick: Cam Newton Under 197.5 passing yards (-115)


Jakobi Meyers receptions

Based on that pasting I’ve just dished out to Cam, there’s no way I could back Meyers on total yardage, but his line on receptions looks worth taking on.

In the last three weeks, Meyers has been targeted 30 times by his QB and has hauled in 22 catches. Meyers had a 40% target share in Monday’s game with the Jets and with Julian Edelman on Injury Reserve there are targets to be had. N’Keal Harry has been limited in practice all week with a concussion and is a game time decision. if he was to miss out that would play even more into Meyers’ hands.

In the last few weeks Meyers has arguably been Newton’s most reliable pass catcher, so even if the yardage isn’t there, I expect Cam to look his way often and he can bring in more than three catches.

Pick: Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 receptions (-160)


Marquise Brown receiving yards

Hollywood Brown is a serious talent. No doubt about it. But he has managed to rack up more than 45 receiving yards in just four of his last 15 games. That is mental.

Brown has a healthy 23.5% target share in this Ravens offense, but it is no secret Lamar Jackson just isn’t throwing it much. New England’s pass defense is far from incredible, with the Patriots giving up 13 yards per reception this season, but in a game where the Ravens may look to run the ball more often as they are in positive game script, Hollywood may not get many targets.

Through two games after the bye week Brown has had a combined four catches for 41 yards, and while this is a far easier task than the Steelers or Colts, I still have no confidence in Hollywood.

Pick: Marquise Brown Under 44.5 receiving yards (-110)


Mark Andrews receptions

Mark Andrews has had three catches or less in six of his seven games, even though he is averaging more than five targets a game in that span. The targets are there, but the receptions aren’t, and now Andrews faces a Patriots defense which has quietly been dealing with tight ends very well.

Darren Waller only caught two balls in Week 3, and Travis Kelce only managed three receptions in Week 4 against New England, despite a combined 11 targets for the pair. In this contest last year Andrews was held to two catches for 21 yards.

Similarly to Hollywood, there is a danger the Ravens do not throw as much as usual (and even that volume is small), so Jackson may only throw 15-18 completions here. Andrews is on track for four or five of those looks. Do you fancy him to catch over 3.5 passes on that basis? Me neither.

Pick: Mark Andrews Under 3.5 receptions (-175)


Wager on Week 10 of the 2020 NFL season now at BetAmerica! 

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