Scott Shapiro's Week 11 NFL Six Pack

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November 14th, 2019

Week 10 was arguably the most entertaining and captivating slate of games from an enjoyable 2019 NFL season. We got a bit of everything—upsets, nail biters and an overtime thriller between two of the best teams in the NFC to close the week. Hopefully the excitement will continue this weekend.

Here is my Week 11 Six Pack (all games Sunday).

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

New England and Philadelphia met in Super Bowl LII, and it was a shootout eventually won by the Eagles 41-33, but this one is unlikely to play out that way. I expect both teams to struggle to find the end zone Sunday afternoon.

Coming into the 2019 season, I thought the Eagles would have one of the best offenses in football, but the loss of deep threat DeSean Jackson has left the Philadelphia passing game without speed at the wide receiver position. The Birds have found ways to matriculate the ball down the field, but the lack of big playmakers on the outside will be a huge issue against a one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Philly may have some success on the ground, but look for Bill Belichick’s unit to play tight, man-to-man defense on the outside and focus on taking Zach Ertz out of the game. I do not see the Eagles scoring more than 17 points.

In 2018 the Patriots had one of the league’s best rushing attacks, but that has not been the case this season. The offensive line is one of their few weaknesses and the loss of fullback James Develin to a neck injury cannot be understated. New England also lacks a big playmaker on the outside. The Patriots rely almost solely on the short and intermediate passing game. I expect James White, Julian Edelman and Mohammed Sanu to be very active against the Eagles, but the Patriots will struggle to rush the ball against one of the league’s best run defenses.

Points will be at a premium with both teams coming off their bye week.

Pick: Under 44.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Unfortunately playing down to competition has been an issue for the Indianapolis Colts in 2019. They have wins at Kansas City and at home against Houston but lost as six-point favorites in Week 4 to the Raiders and struggled mightily to beat the Broncos in Week 8. On Sunday they blew a big opportunity as a double-digit favorite at home in a loss to the Dolphins.

I thought Brian Hoyer would be good enough to get the job done against Miami, but he cost his team dearly with three interceptions in a 16-12 loss. The good news for Indy is that Jacoby Brissett is likely to return in time for this key divisional clash. Brissett has played extremely well in 2019 and does what Hoyer did not—protect the football.
Nick Foles will make his first start since he injured his clavicle and Week 1 and could spark the Jaguars, but I like Indy to find a way to and cover in this near must-win contest.

Pick: Indianapolis -3

New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-1), 1 p.m. ET, FOX

The Jets earned their second victory of the season against the Giants on Sunday, and starting quarterback Sam Darnold is not ready to give up on the 2019 season. The second-year signal caller said, ”If we get on a roll here and win out, we’ve got a chance at the playoffs.”

I think Darnold is crazy, but I love the optimism. His Jets have a winnable game Sunday in the nation’s capital against a Redskins team that has not scored a touchdown in a month.
Washington will turn to rookie Dwayne Haskins at quarterback for the remainder of the season. The former Ohio State Buckeye has looked like a deer in headlights so far and is impossible to endorse. Interim head coach Bill Callahan will try to run the football, but that is unlikely to work against a Jets defense that has yielded just 3.0 yards per carry and 81.9 yards per game on the ground.

Pick: New York +1

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Rams came into the 2019 season as one of the favorites to win the NFC, but they are a mess. Jared Goff can be an effective quarterback when he has a running game to lean on, an offensive line to protect him and solid weaponry, but he has none of that heading into a key Week 11 matchup against the Bears. Los Angeles will be without three starting offensive linemen, as well as wide receiver Brandin Cooks.

The Bears have their issues as well, especially on offense, but I expect them to get a ton of pressure on Goff and to hang in this one from start to finish.

Pick: Chicago Bears +6.5

Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Broncos earned a hard-fought victory in their first game with Brandon Allen at the helm back in Week 9, but now Allen will head into hostile territory to take on a Vikings team that is 14-6 against the spread in home games over the last three seasons.

Much like last Sunday, the Vikings will sell out to stop the run and make the former sixth-round selection beat them through the air. I do not expect that to go well.

Things could get ugly in the Twin Cities.

Pick: Minnesota -10.5

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-5.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX

It has been an extremely disappointing season for Atlanta, but the Falcons came off the bye week a new team and dominated the Saints in the Superdome, 26-9. The Falcons are is unlikely to have similar success against the Panthers offense, but they should have no problem moving the ball against a Carolina defense that has struggled to stop the opposition’s rushing attack and is solid, but not elite against the pass.

Atlanta has won six of its last seven matchups against Carolina, with the lone loss by a field goal in 2017. The Falcons may not win Sunday, but they should be able to keep it close.

Pick: Atlanta +5.5

Scott Shapiro’s 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 11: 40-31-1 (Last week 3-4-1)