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Scully’s NFL Week 10 picks: Ravens will roll over Patriots

Profile Picture: James Scully

November 11th, 2020

The only remaining winless team against the spread, the Dallas Cowboys, covered in Week 9, and the first half of the 2020 NFL season is complete.  

Cincinnati, Green Bay, Miami, and Pittsburgh lead the way with a 6-2 ATS record, and Cincinnati will travel to Pittsburgh in Week 10.

Favorites went 6-8 ATS in Week 9, which drops them to 60-71-1 ATS for the season.

Here are three picks for Week 10's NFL action.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

Mon, November 16 2020, 1:20 AM

New England Patriots

Spread

+7.5

Moneyline

+265

Total

O 44

Baltimore Ravens

Spread

-7.5

Moneyline

-340

Total

U 44

Baltimore is vulnerable against good defenses, but that won’t be a concern in Week 10. The Ravens dominate lesser AFC teams, with easy covers against Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Houston this season, and it will be more of the same Sunday night.

New England’s defense has declined significantly in recent weeks. It surrendered 467 yards to San Francisco in its last home game and 20 first-half points on the road against the Jets in Week 9.

After a tough home loss to Pittsburgh in Week 8, Baltimore got its mojo back in the second half against Indianapolis. The Ravens did little offensively for two quarters, but their elite defense kept them in the game with a fumble recovery for a touchdown.

Baltimore whipped the Colts, 17-0, in the second half, and the Ravens will get the offense fully charged with a high-scoring performance against New England.

The Patriots have little big-play ability — they must grind everything out offensively — and that formula won’t work against Baltimore.

Pick: Baltimore -7.5


Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

This is a favorable spot for the Rams, who had a week off to prepare after a mistake-filled loss to Miami. Seattle is banged up and reeling, after it gave up 44 points in Buffalo last week.

The Seahawks are putting too much on Russell Wilson. When they can protect him, Wilson will dissect opposing defenses. But their offensive line was not good against Buffalo, which resulted in four turnovers from Wilson. The quarterback will be under more duress against the Rams.

Los Angeles gets after teams defensively and has only allowed 19 points per game (second-best in NFL). Along with an average of 3.1 sacks per game (fifth-best in the NFL), the Rams feature the second-ranked pass defense. They are capable of applying relentless pressure upon Wilson.

The Seahawks' defensive woes were bound to catch up to them, and Rams quarterback Jared Goff will be able to clean up on mistakes.

The Rams are always playable in rebound mode. They've covered eight of the last nine games after an ATS loss, and their defense will prove too much for Seattle in Week 10.

Pick: Los Angeles -2


Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

Sun, November 15 2020, 6:00 PM

New York Giants

Spread

+3.5

Moneyline

+155

Total

O 44.5

Philadelphia Eagles

Spread

-3.5

Moneyline

-185

Total

U 44.5

The Giants are discovering their identity. They have covering their last three games as underdogs and just picked up their second win of the season.

The Giants will give Philadelphia all they can handle.

Daniel Jones, who threw a pair of interceptions as New York allowed a winnable home game against Tampa Bay to slip away in Week 8, must limit mistakes, but I like how the second-year quarterback is developing a chemistry with receivers Evan Engram, Austin Mack, and Sterling Shepard.

The offense can carry its momentum forward against a banged-up Philadelphia defense that has given up a lot of points this season. And the Giants defense has become opportunistic, with five forced turnovers in Week 9. The Eagles give the ball away and rank next-to-last with 17 turnovers, and only Dallas has a worse turnover differential.

Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS when favored this season, and the Eagles are one of the lower-scoring teams, at 23.2 points per game.

Philadelphia has control in the NFC East with a 3-4-1 record, but there are no good teams in the division. This should be another close game in the division, and I will grab the points with the improving Giants.

Pick: New York +3.5


James Scully's NFL ATS record heading into Week 9: 10-17

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