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Scully’s NFL Week 11 picks: Burrow will get Bengals back on track

Profile Picture: James Scully

November 18th, 2020

Favorites performed better in Week 10 of the NFL season, with a 7-5-1 record against the spread, but underdogs still hold the advantage for the year (76-67-2).

I was glad to rebound with a 2-1 mark in Week 10 and have a couple underdogs of interest for Week 11.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Football Team

Sun, November 22 2020, 6:00 PM

Washington Football Team

Spread

-1.5

Moneyline

-130

Total

O 46.5

Cincinnati Bengals

Spread

+1.5

Moneyline

+110

Total

U 46.5

This line makes no sense.

The Bengals beat Tennessee two games back, they’ve covered every game against mediocre teams this season, and they will win outright against Washington.

Washington was losing, 24-3, to Detroit in the second half last week, until the Lions nearly imploded. Washington rallied to tie the game late, but couldn’t stop Detroit from gaining 34 yards in the final 12 seconds to win it.

Cincinnati was clobbered, 36-10, by Pittsburgh last week, but the Bengals will get back on track against Washington. The Bengals have a huge advantage at quarterback, and Joe Burrow will not have back-to-back bad games.

Washington is not running the ball effectively — the team has been held to an astonishing 126 total rushing yards by the New York Giants and Detroit the last two weeks — and it is asking too much for Alex Smith to outgun Burrow.

Pick: Bengals +1.5


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Mon, November 23 2020, 1:20 AM

Las Vegas Raiders

Spread

+6.5

Moneyline

+230

Total

O 56.5

Kansas City Chiefs

Spread

-6.5

Moneyline

-290

Total

U 56.5

Las Vegas did not look ahead in Week 10, when it easily covered against Denver, and the improving Raiders expect to beat Kansas City. I’m grabbing the points.

Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr has been terrific during the Raiders' current three-game win streak. He posted the highest passing rating (90.3) of the season in Week 10, according to Pro Football Focus, and Las Vegas is the eighth-highest scoring team (28.3 points per game).

The Vegas defense has made big strides, held two of the last three opponents to 12 points or fewer, and the Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five AFC West games.

Kansas City will be fired up, after its lone loss of the season to Las Vegas in Week 5. The Chiefs may have overlooked their rival at the time, but this will still be a tough test. The Chiefs surrendered 31 points to Carolina in their last outing, and the Raiders offense is firing on all cylinders.

Pick: Las Vegas +7


New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, November 22 2020, 9:05 PM

Los Angeles Chargers

Spread

-8.5

Moneyline

-450

Total

O 47

New York Jets

Spread

+8.5

Moneyline

+335

Total

U 47

Don’t be fooled by a couple recent home performances against divisional rivals (Buffalo and New England) — New York remains a terrible road team. The Jets have been outscored by a 95-16 margin in their last three road games, and quarterback Joe Flacco will make his second straight start in relief of Sam Darnold.

Los Angeles is better than its 2-7 record. The Chargers have struggled to win close games, with all seven of their losses coming by one score, but that won’t be an issue in Week 11.

The Chargers have averaged 28 points over their last six games, and they will beat the Jets by double digits.

Flacco put up good numbers last week, but I have no faith in him. The Chargers expect to have elite pass rusher Joey Bosa back from a concussion, and New York is 0-4 ATS away from home this season.

Los Angeles, which is 4-2 ATS in its last six games against AFC East teams, has not been good for bettors of late (0-3 ATS), but the Chargers will turn things around against the hapless Jets.

Pick: Chargers -8.5


James Scully's NFL ATS record heading into Week 11: 12-18

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