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Scully's NFL Week 4 picks: Fade the Colts and Saints

Profile Picture: James Scully

September 30th, 2020

Seven unbeaten teams remain in the NFL, and Atlanta is one of eight winless teams, even though it is averaging 30 points scored per game. Green Bay (40.7) leads the league in points per game, followed by Seattle (37). The New York Jets are the lowest-scoring at 12.3 points per game.

I will fade a couple of vulnerable favorites and lay the points with a high-scoring offense in Week 4.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Sun, October 4 2020, 5:00 PM

Chicago Bears

Spread

+2.5

Moneyline

+120

Total

O 44.5

Indianapolis Colts

Spread

-2.5

Moneyline

-145

Total

U 44.5

Fortunate to be 3-0, Chicago can beat middle-of-the-road teams like Indianapolis at home. Replacing Mitchell Trubisky with Nick Foles led to a comeback win last week, and the switch brought oxygen to a quarterback situation that was choking on its own ineptitude.

After he led the team to score 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, "Foles Magic" is alive and well in the Windy City.

Indianapolis exits a pair of victories over dysfunctional teams — the Vikings and Jets — and its first three opponents have only one win between them. Gardner Minshew made the Colts secondary look foolish in a Week 1 setback, though, and the Colts haven’t felt the loss of running back Marlon Mack (injured in Week 1) in the last couple games.

That changes Sunday. Indianapolis looks good when it faces little defensive resistance, but Chicago can pressure quarterback Philip Rivers.

Foles' ascension will have a positive effect on running back David Montgomery, and Allen Robinson (10 catches for 123 yards last week) will be the best receiver on the field.

Chicago will win as a home dog!

Pick: Chicago +2.5


New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions

Sun, October 4 2020, 5:00 PM

Detroit Lions

Spread

+4.5

Moneyline

+165

Total

O 54

New Orleans Saints

Spread

-4.5

Moneyline

-205

Total

U 54

I'm fading New Orleans as a road favorite in this spot.

Detroit snapped an 11-game losing streak at Arizona last week, when it rallied from a fourth-quarter deficit, and the Lions consumed the final 4:49 on the game clock with a 10-play drive that culminated in a 39-yard Matt Prater field goal.

After they were outscored 42-7 over the final three quarters by Green Bay in Week 2, the Lions turned things around nicely.

Their defense frustrated Kyler Murray and forced three interceptions. Kenny Golladay is also finally back and recorded six catches for 57 yards and a touchdown in his season debut. The star wide receiver makes an enormous difference for Detroit’s offense.

Michael Thomas could return for the Saints on Sunday, but Drew Brees is not playing well. He threw to running back Alvin Kamara 14 times last week, refused to take shots downfield, and problems run deeper for New Orleans. The Saints rank last in penalty yardage, 110.3 per game, and are dealing with numerous injuries, along with undisciplined play across the board.

Detroit often finds ways to lose close games, but the Lions will give New Orleans all it can handle. I expect a tight affair that is decided by a field goal or less.

Pick: Detroit +4.5


Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys

Sun, October 4 2020, 5:00 PM

Dallas Cowboys

Spread

-4.5

Moneyline

-235

Total

O 55

Cleveland Browns

Spread

+4.5

Moneyline

+190

Total

U 55

Dallas can score with any team in the league. With an offense firing on all cylinders, the Cowboys will take Cleveland out of its element this weekend.

Cleveland is better than .500 for the first time since December of 2014, because of its ability to run the ball on more than 60% of snaps in wins over Cincinnati and Washington. But Baker Mayfield’s passing attempts will increase significantly Sunday.

The mistake-prone quarterback still isn’t on the same page with top receiver Odell Beckham Jr., and I give new coach Kevin Stefanski credit for devising a scheme that doesn’t ask Mayfield to do too much.

The Browns defense is a concern. It failed to slow Baltimore and Cincinnati, as both teams scored at least 30 points, and the punchless Washington offense put up 13 straight second-half points to take the lead late in the third quarter last week.

Dallas was able to generate a viable pass rush for the first time last week. Aldon Smith has found his footing, after a four-year absence, and Cleveland won’t be able to match points as Dallas wins going away.

Pick: Dallas -4.5


James Scully's 2020 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 4: 4-5

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