Scully’s Thanksgiving NFL picks: Lions-Bears, Falcons-Saints

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November 26th, 2019

Chicago Bears
-3 (-105)
Over 38.5 (-115)
Detroit Lions
+3 (-115)
Under 38.5 (-105)
Both of these offenses can be woeful at times, but Chicago is performing at a much higher level defensively and ranks fourth in yards allowed and defensive efficiency ratings. The Bears remain in the wildcard chase and are starting to get production in the passing game. Allen Robinson posted a season-high 131 receiving yards last week.
Detroit brings declining form to this matchup, with three straight losses since Matthew Stafford was sidelined with a back injury. The Lions scored only 16 points in an ugly loss to Washington last week, and backup QB Jeff Driskel threw three interceptions and exited the game a sore hamstring. The Detroit defense is starting to wear down, as well. The Lions have dropped to 29th in yards allowed (396.2 per game), and Chicago’s maligned offense can take advantage.

Pick: Chicago -3

New Orleans Saints (-7) at Atlanta Falcons, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

New Orleans Saints
-7 (+101)
Over 49 (-109)
Atlanta Falcons
+7 (-121)
Under 49 (-111)
I'm concerned by how New Orleans has played of late. The Saints lost by 17 to Atlanta and then surrendered 31 points to Carolina last week, and I remember how they were overvalued last year when not in top form (they finished on a 0-5 ATS run). New Orleans is 1-3 ATS when favored by seven points or more this season, and while the Saints remain eligible to grind out a close win, I will grab the points with Matt Ryan and the Falcons at home.

Atlanta turned things around earlier this month, when it snapped a six-game losing streak with convincing wins over New Orleans and Carolina, and enters this contest with a 7-2 ATS record in its last seven NFC South home games. The Falcons faltered as a home favorite against high-scoring Tampa Bay last week, but Ryan still threw for nearly 300 yards, and his offense can move the ball against a declining Saints defense that has allowed more than 1,000 combined yards over its last three games (all against NFC South foes).

Pick: Atlanta +7

James Scully's 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 13: 33-27 (3-2 last week)