Scully’s Week 10 NFL Free Picks

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November 7th, 2018

After a 2-3 ATS run in Week 9, James Scully is now 20-22-3 ATS (45.6%) and looks to correct his stride with a five-pack of Week 10 NFL free picks. Enjoy!

*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps

Atlanta Falcons -4.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Not easy for 2-5-1 team to maintain focus after a coach is fired, especially with Kansas City ahead, but Cleveland (+4.5) put up a good fight before coming up short against a quality foe last week. And I expect them to keep moving forward without the ineptitude of Hue Jackson at the wheel. RB Chubb (85 yards rushing and TD last week) starting to make a difference and helps Baker Mayfield’s development, and interim coach Gregg Williams is one of the best defensive minds in the game. Look for an inspired defensive effort from the NFL’s most opportunistic unit (Browns lead league with +11 turnover differential).

Too many to lay on the road with Atlanta, who has really stunk against AFC competition (0-8 ATS last eight games). Recent bye week came at the right time for injury-riddled Falcons but won’t overreact to 38-14 win over Washington last week. Atlanta still has defensive issues (29th ranked allowing 28.3 points per game) and will be missing their top running back. Dirty Birds remain suspect up front and this is the second of back-to-back road games. Cleveland has a legit chance to win straight up, but I’ll grab the points.

Week 10 NFL Free Picks – Bet Cleveland +4.5 over Atlanta!

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Jacksonville (+3.5) slumped when losing three straight to Kansas City, Dallas and Houston, but Jags played much better last time before narrowly falling to Philly. They’re starting to turn things around. Expect further improvement against an Indianapolis defense that has surrendered 42 points to the Jets and 28 points to the Raiders in two of their last three games. Jacksonville wasn’t able to run the ball against fierce Eagles front but Bortles had a good game (24-for-41 for 286 yards with a TD and no interceptions). The Jags’ ground game can get back on track (Indy gave up more than 100 yards rushing to Raiders and Jets) and Jacksonville will carry their momentum forward against an opponent they love to pound, with Jacksonville 6-0 ATS (3-0 ATS at Indy) in last six meetings.

Indianapolis edged past Oakland in fourth quarter but the defense can’t stop anybody, allowing 26.6 points per game. And while the Colts’ offense has been rolling against weak teams (Jets-Bills-Raiders last three weeks), Jacksonville features the eighth ranked defense and is the top ranked unit versus the pass. Colts lost four of five before recent two-game win streak against pitiful teams; they’re laying too many points Sunday against an opponent who has their number.

Week 10 NFL Free Picks – Bet Jacksonville +3.0 over Indianapolis!

New Orleans Saints -5.5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

New Orleans (-5) exit huge win over Rams that put them in driver’s seat for home-field advantage in NFC but not expecting a hangover against Cincinnati, who has tailed off significantly on defensive side (30th versus pass) and won’t have their best player (AJ Green sidelined). Saints’ energized defensive unit ranks #1 against the run and love the development of RB Kamara and WR Thomas. New Orleans has covered six straight and is 4-0 ATS vs teams with a winning record.

Cincinnati enters 5-3 SU but can’t ignore their declining trajectory; this offense simply can’t afford to be missing their top weapons (Green and TE Eifert). Bengals lucky to win last game against lowly Tampa Bay, who piled up 551 yards but committed four turnovers. And I love playing against poorly-coached teams off the bye; they always tend to return flat. Cincy 0-3 ATS against teams with a winning record this year and will be 0-4 after Sunday.

Week 10 NFL Free Picks – Bet New Orleans -5.5 over Cincinnati!

Washington Redskins +3.0 vs TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS (Sunday 1:00 ET)

Tampa Bay (-1.5) features a prolific offense averaging a whopping 356 passing yards per game (36 yards more than second-best); they average 28.6 points per game and will score plenty this weekend. Defense is always a concern but Bucs poised to take advantage of a favorable match-up against an opponent reverting back to the mean (Washington an 8-8 team that opened season 5-2).

Washington exploited low-scoring teams when starting fast this season, but Atlanta dropped 38 points on them last week and Skins have struggled against good passing teams (New Orleans scored 43 last month). Tampa Bay 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams and Skins lethargic offense (Washington held to 20 or less and failed to crack 23 points in every game since September) won’t be able to match points with Tampa.

Week 10 NFL Free Picks – Bet Tampa Bay -3.0 over Washington!

Los Angeles Chargers -10.0 vs OAKLAND RAIDERS (Sunday 4:05 ET)

We’ve been riding this trend for weeks and time for another withdrawal from the ‘Bet-Against Raiders ATM.’ It may not last the entire season but until Oakland covers another game, you owe to yourself to play against a team that has quit and isn’t hiding their intention to make John Gruden look bad (0-4 ATS since lone SU win of season). Oakland players despise the man. Gruden and front office don’t have any desire to win another game – they’re tanking for the 1st pick – but would prefer to be respectable; that’s not happening and it’s going to get uglier.

Los Angeles Chargers (-10) playing their best football, winning the last five games with a 4-1 ATS mark, and they’ve covered four of the last five meetings against the Raiders, who were actually favored last week (lost by 31) and are 0-5 ATS in the next game after being favored. Chargers 5-0 ATS in last five November games and love the defensive improvement as L.A. shut down Russell Wilson and Seattle last week. Chargers won’t mess around with this inferior foe so lay the points!

Week 10 NFL Free Picks – Bet L.A. Chargers -10 over Oakland!

James Scully is a professional handicapper who hails from the great state of Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @JamesScully.