Scully’s Week 13 Picks: Ravens set to continue ATS dominance

Profile Picture: James Scully

November 29th, 2019

Week 13 features a meeting between Super Bowl hopefuls with Baltimore and San Francisco set to clash at M&T Bank Stadium. I will preview that widely anticipated matchup and four other Sunday games.

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-6), 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

All aboard! Baltimore has become a money train for bettors since late October (5-0 ATS), devastating Super Bowl hopefuls like New England and Seattle along the way, and they will carry their form forward against San Francisco’s top-ranked defense.

The offensive stats are glaring – Baltimore easily leads the NFL in points per game (35.1) and rushing offense (210.5 yards per game), and they have the best player in Lamar Jackson. He threw five touchdown passes against the Los Angeles Rams last week and leads an offense that blitzes the opposition with its speed and toughness. The Ravens have improved significantly on defense since acquiring Marcus Peters and getting Jimmy Smith back from injury last month.
San Francisco rushes the quarterback at breakneck speed. They terrorized Aaron Rogers in the pocket last week, but mobile quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray (twice) have given them trouble, with all three games going down to the wire. Jackson presents a greater challenge and can keep San Francisco off balance.

NFL free pick: Ravens -6

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Green Bay played poorly in a lopsided loss at San Francisco, but they rebounded from the two previous setbacks, winning and covering both times. The Packers can avoid negative yardage plays against a terrible defense this week, and their opportunistic stop unit (+8 takeaway/giveaway ratio) should feast upon turnover-prone New York, which ranks second with 25 giveaways this year. The Packers will reestablish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC North with a double-digit win.

New York has lacked a home-field advantage in MetLife Stadium, posting a 1-6 ATS record in the last seven games. They allowed Chicago’s dormant offense to take over in the second-half last week, and the Giants will finish near the bottom of the league in points allowed. Daniel Jones appears to have hit a rookie slump, and the Giants can’t rely on the ground game due to a porous offensive line, with Saquon Barkley being held under 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games since returning from an ankle injury.

NFL free pick: Packers -6.5

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5), 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Tennessee has developed a dynamic ground game, rushing for 219 yards against Jacksonville and 225 yards against Kansas City. Ryan Tannehill went 27-for-39 (72.9% completion rate) with four touchdowns and no interceptions in those two games. The Titans are playing their best football at the right time of the year, but the same is not true for Indianapolis.

The Colts have lost three of their last four games. They are so reliant upon running the ball, with Jacoby Brissett throwing for only 129 yards in last week’s loss, and top running back Marlon Mack is out for the second straight week. Tennessee can play stingy defense, ranking a respectable 10th, allowing only 19.7 points per game.

Tennessee has really turned things around offensively since Tannehill took the reins following a 16-0 shutout loss in mid-October. The Titans are averaging 29.4 points per game over their last five contests, and I like their chances to win outright as a road dog.

NFL free pick: Titans +2.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) at Miami Dolphins, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Philadelphia should appreciate being on the road after the relentless booing of Carson Wentz by the home fans last week, but their offensive problems remain a reality. They have averaged 13.6 points per game over the last three weeks, and Doug Pederson plans to simplify the playbook in the wake of a five-turnover performance against Seattle. That's never a good sign this late in the season. Wentz will play despite hurting his throwing hand last week, but he’s in a rut with an injury-decimated receiving ranks and the Eagles have been missing running back Jordan Howard.

How will Philadelphia score enough points to cover this number? It’s far more likely they eke out a close win, and I’m taking the points with Miami.

Miami was a mess the first month of the season, but the Dolphins haven’t come close to being held scoreless since the start of October. Ryan Fitzpatrick can still bring it, tossing a pair of touchdowns last week and throwing for 323 yards two games ago. The Dolphins' banged-up secondary catches a break against Philadelphia after getting burned by Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr.

NFL free pick: Dolphins +9.5

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

Arizona may have lost four straight, but they have faced New Orleans and San Francisco twice during that stretch. The Cardinals are still trending in the right direction for bettors, posting a 5-1-1 ATS record over the last seven games, and I want no part of a sinking Los Angeles offense that can’t run or pass effectively.

Baltimore exposed the Rams last week, winning 45-6, and I expect a carryover effect. Todd Gurley is not 100%, and it’s difficult for Los Angeles to get much going behind an injury-ravaged offensive line that is performing below par. That puts plenty of pressure on the defense, and the Rams won’t be able to match points with Arizona, in my estimation.

I love the improvement Kyler Murray has displayed this season. The strong-armed rookie can hurt teams with his legs, rushing for 418 yards and three touchdowns. His ability to avoid pressure figures to give the Los Angeles defense fits.

NFL free pick: Cardinals +3

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