We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season. Some teams have surprised us in a good way, like the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions, while others have surprised in the other direction, like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons. We also have two expected favorites at 4-0, with the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs.
The Super Bowl odds
are constantly changing from week to week, and it is crucial for handicapping to try to maximize your odds on the team you believe will win it all. Let's look at the three biggest odds movers from Week 4 and then my top three value wagers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10000 to +6600)
The Bucs pulled off a massive upset in Week 4 with a defeat of the Los Angeles Rams on the road, 55-40. Jameis Winston, after he struggled the first two weeks, has gone back-to-back games with more than 380 yards and three 0r more touchdowns. The Tampa Bay defense is near the bottom of the league in points allowed, but if it can improve to just mediocre with the way the offense is playing, the Bucs can make a run.
Tennessee Titans (+8800 to +5500)
The Titans went into Atlanta and defeated the Falcons 24-10 Sunday. Mike Vrabel's defense has been spectacular so far this season and the Titans are fourth in the league in points allowed. The schedule will lighten up over the next few weeks, as five of their next seven games will be at home. Only three games remain on their schedule against teams in the top 13 in current Super Bowl odds. The AFC South is also currently in a four-way tie, with every team at 2-2.
Atlanta Falcons (+6225 to +9925)
The Falcons made a big move in the opposite direction. Atlanta has an impressive win over the Eagles in Week 2, but that is its only victory. A disappointing home loss to the Titans put a damper on what this season can be for the Falcons. The schedule gets brutal for Dan Quinn's squad, as the Falcons have two consecutive road games, followed by tough home games with the Rams and Seahawks. They will have a much-needed bye, but then they go straight into a game at New Orleans. The Falcons may be out of the playoff picture before November.
Best value picks
Minnesota Vikings (+3425)
Minnesota has had its struggles in the passing game, but the Vikings defense is currently fifth in the league in points allowed. Minnesota's only two losses came on the road against top division rivals in close games. There are many winnable games left on the Vikings' schedule, and this is the time to maximize their odds. If they get some quality play from quarterback Kirk Cousins, the talent is there for this team to win it all.
Chicago Bears (+2300)
The Chicago defense is a monster and can shut down even the best of offenses. The Bears offense needs to improve, as it is currently 28th in points per game. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky could miss some time with a shoulder injury, but the Bears have a much-needed bye week after their game in London this week against the Raiders. The Bears were my preseason pick to win it all at +1800, so I love them even more at +2300.
Los Angeles Rams (+1100)
The Rams defense has shown signs of inconsistency this season, with 55 points and 30 points allowed to the Bucs and Panthers, respectively. It also shut down the Saints and Browns. The Rams need consistency to get them back on top of the NFC, but the talent is there. Los Angeles is still the favorite to win the NFC and the third choice to win the Super Bowl. I recommend jumping on this now before they improve.