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NFL passing props: The best bets for Brady, Burrow and Wentz

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April 30th, 2020

NFL free agency and the draft will play a significant role in the impact a number of quarterbacks will have on their teams – new and old – this season. 

It started with Tom Brady leaving New England for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

It continued at the 2020 NFL Draft with a number of key selections, including first overall pick Joe Burrow to the Cincinnati Bengals and second round pick Jalen Hurts to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Here now are three intriguing quarterback props to consider for the upcoming season following last week’s NFL Draft. 

Carson Wentz total passing yards

Total passing yardsOdds
Over 3,925.5 Yards
-110
Under 3,925.5 Yards
-110

The quarterback situation in Philadelphia is one to keep an eye on this season. 

The Eagles have Carson Wentz returning for his fifth season, but they also turned heads last week with the selection of Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts in the NFL Draft. 

Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has told reporters this isn't about replacing Wentz.

But the selection of Hurts -- at least the optics of it -- suggest that this should serve notice that things could change, especially if the incumbent starter goes through any prolonged struggles during the season. 

The total for Carson Wentz passing yards in the 2020 regular season is currently 3,925.5 at BetAmerica

He surpassed that total with 4,039 pass yards last season, quarterbacking an Eagles team rife with injuries to their receivers – none of whom had more than 500 yards receiving last year.

Philadelphia had three players with more than 500 yards receiving last year, including two tight ends and one running back. 

There has been an emphasis on giving Wentz as many weapons as possible at wide receiver this offseason.

The Eagles acquired Marquise Goodwin in a deal with the San Francisco 49ers, and they selected Jalen Reagor with the 21st overall pick in the draft. Those two players will join a group that includes veterans Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and tight end Zach Ertz. 

Be aware the Under here.  

Hurts is a rookie, backing up a quarterback who was taken second overall in 2016. But the Eagles could plan a variety of ways to get Hurts involved in the offense throughout the season, which could potentially take away snaps from Wentz, and could have a further impact on his pass attempts, completions, and yards.  

NFL free pick: Under 3,925.5 yards

Tom Brady total touchdown passes

Total touchdownsOdds
Over 29.5
-110
Under 29.5
-110

Tom Brady has joined a new team with a new offense, and it’s one that should grab the attention of every defensive coordinator tasked with trying to limit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. 

The total for Tom Brady touchdown passes this season is set at 29.5 at BetAmerica. The Over, in this case, seems to be a reasonable expectation, even if Brady will turn 43 years old in early August. 

His top two wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, combined for 17 touchdown receptions last season, when Jameis Winston was the quarterback in Tampa Bay.

They form a formidable one-two combination at wide receiver, especially after Godwin experienced such a massive breakout campaign last year. 

Joining the Buccaneers fresh out of retirement is hulking tight end Rob Gronkowski, one of Brady’s favorite targets during their days in New England. 

At least for right now, you also have to factor in tight end O.J. Howard, who will look to rebound from a dreadful 2019 season in which he had only one touchdown catch. 

The 2019 Buccaneers finished third in the NFL with 33 touchdown passes. While Brady only had 24 last year in New England, the team he joins in Tampa Bay certainly has far more weapons on offense to have a shot at boosting that number this year and giving bettors backing the Over a better opportunity to cash in. 

NFL free pick: Over 29.5 touchdowns

Joe Burrow total passing yards

Total passing yardsOdds
Over 3,925.5 Yards
+115
Under 3,925.5 Yards
-135

Exactly one week after drafting Joe Burrow first overall in the NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals have released veteran quarterback Andy Dalton. 

The stage appears now completely set to welcome Burrow as the starting quarterback in Cincinnati. Dalton's dismissal bodes well for anyone looking at the Over 3,925.5 Passing Yards for Burrow in NFL props at BetAmerica. 

Helping matters for the Over is the fact Burrow joins an offense that has some good players already in place, and more reinforcements are on the way with the second round pick of wide receiver Tee Higgins. 

Check. 

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After lighting it up for the LSU Tigers last season, Burrow enters the NFL with a mountain of expectations on him. 

Take into consideration, however, that Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray – the last two quarterbacks taken first overall – finished below the 3,925 yards passing mark in their rookie seasons. Ditto for Jared Goff, the first overall pick in 2016. 

Mayfield and Murray certainly came closer to the mark, and the former likely would’ve gone over had he played or started every game in 2018. 

It can take time for rookie quarterbacks to adjust and develop in the NFL. Their head coaches and coordinators might take a more conservative approach to the offense with their play calling. 

The Under looks like the safer bet. 

NFL free pick: Under 3,925.5 yards


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