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Titans vs. Packers: The best betting props for SNF

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December 26th, 2020

Welcome to the vortex everyone. We are in that bizarre period between Christmas and New Year where there is no such thing as space or time. Nobody knows what day it is, and everyone is eating or drinking so much they may combust at any moment. Is eggnog an appropriate breakfast beverage? Probably.

What we do know is that Sunday Night Football is going to be a real treat as the Tennessee Titans visit Green Bay to take on the Packers. The 10-4 Titans are locked in a fierce battle with the Colts in the AFC South, while Green Bay is 11-3 and currently ranked as the top seed in the NFC.

There looks set to be nothing to pick between the two at Lambeau Field, so as I tuck into my 18th box of chocolates for the week, here are Sunday’s best prop bets.

Mon, December 28 2020, 1:20 AM

Green Bay Packers

Moneyline

-177

Spread

-2

Total

O 51.5

Tennessee Titans

Moneyline

+143

Spread

+2

Total

U 51.5

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards

Henry is an absolute beast who now gets to feast on the Green Bay defense. He has had a minimum of 24 touches in four of his last five games, and with freezing temperatures and possibly snow on Sunday night, you can expect plenty more carries for the big cat.

The Packers haven’t let a single running back rack up more than 59 yards in the last three weeks, but they were tagged for 103 yards by Chicago Bears halfback David Montgomery in Week 12.

Let’s focus on Henry though. In five of his last six games, he has gone for more than 100 yards rushing. That includes a phenomenal display in Week 14 in Jacksonville, when he went for 215 yards on 26 carries against the Jaguars.

The Packers have only faced 20 carries per game by running backs this season, but Henry should get plenty more than that here and can continue his incredible year.

Pick: Over 103.5 rushing yards (-120)


Aaron Jones Rushing Yards

Another elite running back in line for a monster game is Aaron Jones for Green Bay. With Jamaal Williams dealing with a quad issue and in doubt for the game, Jones’ volume could only increase, especially in wintery conditions.

Jones had 15 touches or fewer in five of the six games between Week 9 and Week 14 when he returned from injury, but that shot up to 20 last week against the Carolina Panthers. He rewarded Packers head coach Matt LaFleur with 145 yards and a touchdown.

The Titans’ offense is phenomenal, but their defense is pretty average, so Jones has a decent chance to keep moving the chains here. On average, Tennessee gives up 4.3 yards per rushing attempt. With Jones potentially in line for another 18 touches or more, he can do plenty of damage.

Pick: Over 67.5 rushing yards (-120)


Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions

In the last four games, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has registered zero catches in three of them. The one game sandwiched between those is a six-catch, 85-yard effort against the Detroit Lions in Week 14. That’s the kind of effort you could get with Valdes-Scantling, which makes the yardage prop bet a little tricky.

However, there is money to be made on his receptions line. In the 10 games since Green Bay went on a bye and Davante Adams returned, MVS has had a total of 35 targets – an average of just 3.5 per game. In six of those 10 games, he has had four targets or less. Since Week 5, he has averaged fewer than two catches a game. Take out the effort against Detroit, and his catches per game since the bye goes down to 1.4.

None of this points to a big game on Sunday, and backing MVS to go for three catches or less looks a safe bet. 

Pick: Under 3.5 receptions (-330)


A.J. Brown Receiving Yards

The snow worries me, but even Jack Frost can’t stop raw talent like A.J. Brown’s.

Brown has made at least four catches in every game bar one since the Titans came off their Week 4 bye. Over the last five weeks, he has gone for an average of more than 80 yards per game.

Although the Lions kept him in check in Week 15 – holding him to just five catches for 44 yards, his lowest total since Week 10 – that appears to be an exception rather than the rule. As a rookie in 2019, Brown led the league in yards after the catch with 8.8, and is following it up this year with 6.8 yards after the catch – ranking third among receivers in the NFL.

The weather might be against Brown, and he’s facing Jaire Alexander, who is having a very good season for Green Bay. But Brown is so explosive, I’m backing him to beat this line.

Pick: Over 60.5 receiving yards (-120)


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