Tom Brady passing props
After two decades as a New England Patriot, six Super Bowl titles, and three regular-season MVPs, Tom Brady is out to prove himself with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020.
Under Bruce Arians, the 42-year-old quarterback will work with an eccentric, offensive-minded coach, much the opposite of no-nonsense, defensive mastermind Bill Belichick of the Patriots.
Brady will also inherit a handful of gifted weapons at receiver, such as Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who could help him bounce back from a down season in 2019. In his final year with the Patriots, Brady completed 60.8% of his passes for 4,057 yards, 24 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Now that the legendary gunslinger has decided on his new home, you can bet on his performance in 2020, including his total passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions during the regular season.
Let's take a look at each of these prop bets and determine how Brady should fare with the Bucs.
Regular-season passing yards
|Tom Brady passing yards||Odds|
Arians lives and coaches by the philosophy “no risk it, no biscuit.” His pass-first offense encourages the deep ball, which helped former Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston accumulate a league-high 5,109 yards in 2019. It also led to the turnover-prone QB tossing 30 interceptions, the most in the NFL last season.
Now with Brady at the helm, Arians may alter his offense to fit better with the Patriots’ system that Brady is used to — one made up of option routes and play-action fakes.
Either way, the change in scenery and personnel could pump up Brady's numbers in 2020, but he and his teammates will need a ton of time in the offseason to become comfortable with each another and whatever offensive schemes are put in place.
With the COVID-19 pandemic affecting all of sports at the moment and potentially limiting practice in the offseason, that may become an even taller order than it already was.
In 2019, Brady registered around 300 fewer passing yards than he did in 2018. In 2017, the year Brady earned his third NFL MVP award, he compiled 4,577 yards through the air.
Arguably the greatest quarterback of all time has shown a steady decline as he's gotten older. It's also important to note that since 2013, he has only surpassed 4,400 yards twice (in 2015 and 2017).
Pick: Under 4,399.5 yards
Regular-season passing touchdowns
|Tom Brady passing TDs||Odds|
It's become increasingly more difficult for Brady to find the end zone.
In his 2017 MVP season, Brady piled on 32 passing TDs, then followed up that performance with 29 scores in 2018. Last season, he tallied just 24 TDs, his lowest mark since 2006, if you throw out his 2008 season, when he tore his ACL in the season opener.
Arians has been called the "quarterback whisperer" for his ability to bring out the best in some of the NFL's elite QBs, such as Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck. He also assisted Carson Palmer in rebuilding his career with the Arizona Cardinals and coached Winston to a career-high 33 TDs in 2019.
In 2015, Palmer achieved the best season of his career. He threw for 4,671 yards, 35 touchdowns, and earned a 104.6 average quarterback rating. Still, Palmer was in his mid-30s at the time, and Brady will turn 43 on Aug. 3.
It'll be a close call for the veteran to hit the 30-touchdown mark, but it's not out of the question. The G.O.A.T. is chasing a glorious final chapter of his career, and you can expect him to eye the end zone often in 2020.
Pick: Over 29.5 TDs
|Tom Brady INTs||Odds|
Brady has taken fairly good care of the ball, with a 1.8% interception rate from 2000-2019.
Even as he struggled throughout the 2019 season, he only got picked off eight times, which bodes well for the Under on interceptions in 2020.
However, Arians' offense may put Brady at risk of turning the ball over at a higher rate, especially with the offensive line he'll play behind in Tampa Bay.
According to Football Outsiders, the Bucs line ranked 22nd in pass protection in 2019 and allowed 47 sacks. New England ranked fifth.
The Bucs picked up offensive tackle Joe Haeg in free agency but have a long way to go to bolster the unit. Expect Brady to face plenty of pressure in 2020 and give the ball away a bit more, as a result.