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Week 6 Monday Night Football Free Pick (49ers-Packers)

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D.S. Williamson

October 14th, 2018

Green Bay faces a must win game on NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football. At 2-2-1, Packers desperately need a win after last weekend's choke job. On paper, this matchup seems like a gimme, but the line has been creeping higher and higher as the week goes on. Is there any chance that the 49ers keep this close?

NFL WEEK 6 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Monday, October 15th – Lambeau Field – 8:15pm ET Odds: Packers -9.5 (46.5)

49ers Offense vs Packers Defense This one seems pretty obvious. C.J. Beathard's play during the 2017 season is exactly why the team went out and traded for Jimmy Garoppolo. He hasn't been inspiring in place of the injured franchise star either. The 49ers are all about backups these days, and although when healthy Matt Breida’s a nice replacement for McKinnon, he’s doubtful to play.

The Packers rank 2nd against the pass. Opponents only average 208.8 yards. Green Bay’s tough against the rush as well, allowing 105 yards. No way San Francisco consistently moves the ball against Green Bay. You already knew that, didn't you?

Edge: Packers

Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense The 49ers are actually a pretty decent defensive team overall. They allow the 10th fewest yards total, and rank 7th against the rush! These are all good things right? Well, it would if they didn't allow a whopping 29.2 points per game (29th).

Packers only score 23, but they move the football, averaging over 400 yards. Green Bay should find the end zone more than usual because they’ll work with short fields. 49ers have only a small shot of keeping Green Bay from scoring 30.

Edge: Packers

Week 6 Monday Night Football Betting Analysis and ATS Prediction Spread opened at GB -7.5. The two-point swing to GB -9.5 signals that both public and pros believe in Green Bay. Shocking, I know.

Those bettors aren’t looking at trends because neither team has a definitive advantage, which means they must have handicapped this game on stats and visuals. Green Bay’s been busy between the goallines this season, with tons of production, but are still struggling to squeeze in to the endzone.

The Packers shouldn’t have to move the ball that far to score touchdowns, though. San Francisco will make mistakes because C.J. Beathard’s careless with the football. Beathard’s thrown 4 interceptions and has fumbled the ball 3 times, losing 2.

Working with short fields, Green Bay should build a comfortable lead before halftime on their way to a blowout victory. This is a big spread, but it'd be shocking to see the 49ers rally for even a backdoor cover.  

Week 6 Monday Night Football Betting Free Pick: Packers -9.5

 
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