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Week 8 Monday Night Betting - Pats Favored By Two TD's

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D.S. Williamson

October 28th, 2018

The Buffalo Bills host the rival New England Patriots in what many expect to once again be a lopsided affair. The Patriots are 13-3 straight up since 2010. If we go back to 2000, New England’s 31-5 against the Buffalo Bills. This Week 8 Monday Night betting affair appears to be fairly straightforward, but a two-touchdown spread needs some analysis to comfort the nerves of bettors across the country.

NFL WEEK 8 MONDAY NIGHT BETTING New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Monday, October 29th – New Era Field – 8:15pm ET Odds: Patriots -14 (44)

Most NFL handicappers feel the Patriots continue their domination, but 14 points is a ton to hand over to a rival. New England should win, but will they cover the spread?

Patriots Want to Get Josh Gordon More Involved

New England’s goal will be to get Josh Gordon more involved. They might have to because even though Buffalo can’t consistently score, they’ve had success holding opponents to only 210.1 passing yards.

The Bills know that Tom Brady loves to throw to Julian Edelman. They've had a front row seat to the Edelman-Brady show. Buffalo must build a strategy around containing Edelman. Knowing this, Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will try to counter by putting Gordon in one-on-one matchups.

McDaniels should have an even bigger emphasis on getting the ball in Gordon’s hands because running back Sony Michel won’t play while tight-end Rob Gronkowski remains banged up. Michel suffered a knee injury in Week 7. His status is week-to-week. Gronk’s listed as probable. He hasn’t been 100% in any game this season.

Defensively, Bill Belichick might take more chances. Buffalo averages 129.4 passing yards per. Any time it’s a passing down, Belichick could bring the house. The Bills have had a lot of trouble protecting their quarterback this season.

Bills Lean on Anderson Again

It’s hard to believe, but the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs last season. They had a different quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, and their top player on offense wasn’t hurt.

Running back LeSean McCoy remains in the concussion protocol. Although he did practice on a limited basis on Thursday, he probably won’t be ready for a full enough load to be a major impact player in Week 8 Monday Night betting.

With quarterback Josh Allen hurt, the Bills will once again have to turn to veteran Derek Anderson. When he was with Carolina, Anderson lit up the scoreboard a few times in relief of Cam Newton. He doesn’t have the same weapons, and with McCoy hurt, Anderson could fail in Week 8 like he failed in Week 7.

There isn't a ton of optimism around the Bills offensively. They've scored just 11.6 points per game this season, and are the second worst team at moving the chains. None of this is a stark surprise, but it's important to keep things in perspective even if you think a backdoor cover is possible. Anderson isn't a savior. He never has been and the Bills are too bleak of a team to save anyway.

Week 8 Monday Night Betting Analysis and ATS Prediction

Buffalo averages 11.6 points per, which is why the line should only climb. Don’t be surprised if Patriots go off at -16. Most of the trends point to a New England blowout.

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the AFC East, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 in Week 8, and 9-2 ATS versus a team with a losing record. New England’s also 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 against the Bills. Lastly, the Patriots are hot against the spread, going 3-1 ATS in their last 4.

NFL handicappers no doubt are racking their brains trying to find a reason not to lay the points, but there aren’t any. The Patriots should dominate Buffalo on Monday night. Keep calm and lay those points.

NFL Week 8 Monday Night Betting Free Pick: Patriots -14

 
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