Homeracing

Aqueduct - 12/26/2014

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

December 24th, 2014

It’s opening day at Santa Anita, but horseplayers shouldn’t forget about the Big A where a terrific 9 race card awaits. The feature, Race 3, has drawn a 5 horse field and a morning line chalk in Salutos Amigos. Since he figures to be difficult to beat, let’s turn our attention to Race 8 where a possible overlay exists.

Aqueduct Race 8 – 3:43 PM ET

AOC (62.5) for 3&Up F&M going 6f

6-Lost In Success – 6/1 - Rudy Rodriguez, who is only winning at 16% at the current Big A meet, saddles this four-year-old filly that hasn’t been seen since she had a bad race over the slop at Belmont Park in May. Rodriguez has put eight works into her since that race including a bullet going 5 furlongs in 1:02.2 on Dec. 12. She has had success over the inner dirt with a victory and a third place finish from 2 starts. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is turning into one of the best riders on the East Coast. Even though she’s only one of two in the field that’s up for the claim, the likely overlay odds make her the play in this wide-open affair.

2-Misszippityslewda – 5/1 – She has never raced over the inner dirt, but the overall record is daunting. From 10 races, Misszippityslewda has won 3, finished second 4 times, and finished third once. That’s an 80% in the money record. She goes first time for trainer David Jacobsen who wins 28% first after the claim. Jacobsen also wins 29% with horses running for him off of a layoff of 46 to 90 days and he wins 24% with horses that won their last race. Jokey Angel Cruz gets a weight break, meaning that Missizppiyslewda will only be carrying 115.5 pounds in this race. Cruz and Jacobsen have been very good together in the past couple of weeks. The pair have won 2 races and have 2 second place finishes from 8 total races for a 50% in the money rate. She’s got a good shot to win this from a tracking position.

4-Irish Whisper – 7/2 – This daughter of Langfuhr was in over her head in the $150,000 Iroquois Stakes in her first off of a layoff. She ended up eighth and losing by 24 lengths. There’s no doubt that Jose L. Ortiz, Irad’s brother, laid off of her once he figured out that there was no way to get into the money. She came back in her very next race and went gate to wire while running off fractions of 22.2 for a quarter and 45.3 for a half. Ortiz will go for the lead and dare anybody to chase him. If the easy lead develops, Irish Whisper will most likely be long gone. One thing that horseplayers should be aware of, though, is that it’s likely she goes off as the favorite in this and most likely will run from the gate at underlay odds.
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