Homeracing

Belmont Stakes Analysis – Spinoff & Tax

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D.S. Williamson

June 2nd, 2019

The Todd Pletcher trained Spinoff had a horrible trip in the Kentucky Derby. After skipping the Preakness Stakes, Spinoff is back for a try at the 2019 Belmont Stakes. Tax, the Wood Memorial runner-up trained by Danny Gargan, also had a terrible trip in the Derby.

Both Tax and Spinoff attempt to take the Test of Champions on Saturday, June 8. Check out cases for and against two horses that figure to offer overlay odds in Saturday’s Triple Crown race.

Belmont Stakes Case For & Against Spinoff & Tax

Belmont Stakes Case For and Against Spinoff

Spinoff simply didn’t have it in the Kentucky Derby. He folded pretty much right after leaving the gate. Whether it was the mud, the fact that he couldn’t get into a good enough position early on in the race, or simply the fact that he wasn’t good enough that day, it doesn’t matter. The Derby is a throw out for this Todd Pletcher trained horse.

Since the Derby debacle, Spinoff has produced a seriously good work over the Big Sandy dirt. He worked 4 furlongs in 48.3 on May 19. That work was the fifth best of 49. Not only that, but he’s bred to run 1 ½ miles.

Spinoff’s sire, Hard Spun, was sired by Danzig. Spinoff’s mother, Zaftig was sired by Gone West. If Spinoff can get a good position early, he might take the Belmont Stakes ala another Pletcher trained runner, Palace Malice, in 2013.

Handicappers leaning Spinoff’s way have every right to do so.

Belmont Stakes Case For and Against Tax

Tax showed nothing in the Kentucky Derby, either. Due to Maximum Security’s infraction, every horse may have been affected in one way or another, though. Not that it really matters because Tax probably wouldn’t have placed any better than he did.

However, just because a horse runs horribly in the Derby, it doesn’t mean it can’t bounce back in the Belmont. Tax has all the makings of a Belmont Stakes upset winner. He prefers to run somewhat close to the pace. He also has the lung capacity because his sire, Arch, could run all day.

Not only that, but Tax is a New York horse. He finished third in the Remsen, won the Withers, and finished second behind Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. Tax also might have an edge with his conditioner, Danny Gargan.

Like Pletcher, Gargan saddles more than his fair share of winners at Belmont Park. Both trainers have excellent percentages with their horses at Big Sandy. Tax might not appear to have a shot, but just like Spinoff, the horse has all the makings of a Belmont Stakes upset winner. Longshot players should take both Tax and Spinoff very seriously to win the final Triple Crown race of the year on June 8.

 
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