Homeracing

Belmont Stakes Analysis – War of Will & Tacitus

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D.S. Williamson

June 2nd, 2019

Mark Casse trained War of Will won the Preakness Stakes, but won’t head into the Belmont Stakes the morning line favorite. Tacitus, the Wood Memorial winner, will offer favorite’s odds to take the 2019 Test of Champions. What are War of Will’s Chances to win back to back Triple Crown races?

Check out the cases for and against War of Will and Tacitus  

Belmont Stakes Case For & Against War of Will & Tacitus

Belmont Stakes Analysis for and against War of Will

Casse believes that if not for Maximum Security interfering with his horse in the Kentucky Derby, War of Will might be going for a Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes on June 8. Casse could have a point.

War of Will easily won the Preakness Stakes. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione put him in a perfect position behind the front runners. As they turned for home, Gaffalione was in the best position to squeeze through and grab the lead. From then, it was just a matter of how many lengths War of Will would win by.

The Belmont is a different race, though. War of Will looked great winning the Preakness. He still didn’t run particularly fast. Not only that, the two horses that finished second and third might not be as good as what he’ll face on Saturday.

Neither Everfast nor Owendale is a Grade 1 winners. Owendale’s best win happened in the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes where he beat Anothertwistafate who bombed in the Preakness. The question remains about exactly how good War of Will is. Yes, even after the Preakness win.

Belmont Stakes Analysis for and against Tacitus

There’s no question that Tacitus can win the Belmont Stakes. The likely favorite as they leave the gate on June 8, Tacitus is trained by Bill Mott, the man that saddled Kentucky Derby winner Country House. Mott has put the saddle on some of the very best horses to step onto a racetrack.

Sired by Tapit, Tacitus made a decent move in the Kentucky Derby. He didn’t have enough experience to get the victory. What’s really appealing about Tacitus is that Tapit has already sired three Belmont winners in Tonalist, Creator, and Tapwrit.

The only real knock against Tacitus is whether he’ll offer underlay odds to win this race. There are no knocks against his actual ability. A better trip in the Derby, and more experience, could have led to a victory. His trainer is top notch. Jose Ortiz is one of the best riders in the United States while he has the lung capacity to run all day.

Tacitus most definitely deserves to be the favorite to win the Belmont Stakes. The jury might still be out on War of Will. As far which horse offers the best odds comparable to their true chances of winning the Test of Champions, make sure to do your own handicapping before taking a stand.

 
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